Bitcoin’s year‑end 2025 consensus forecast centers on a base case of $140,000–$200,000, with a midpoint near $180,000, driven by institutional inflows, post‑halving supply dynamics, and on‑chain demand metrics. Bullish scenarios push toward $250,000–$700,000 if ETF adoption accelerates and macro conditions remain supportive; bearish risks under regulatory crackdowns or tighter monetary policy could see BTC test $30,000–$90,000.

Key Forecast Ranges

Base case: $140 K–$200 K

Bull case: $250 K–$700 K

Bear case: $30 K–$90 K

Drivers & Risks

Drivers: ETF inflows reducing exchange reserves to multi‑year lows; Fear & Greed Index at Greed (59); halving supply shock .

Risks: Regulatory clampdowns in major markets; macro tightening reducing speculative capital .