The fluctuation of the large pancake has been less than 400 points in the last 5 hours, a calm before the storm.

From the current market expectations, there is over a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates tonight. This expectation has been widely discussed and digested in the market; however, the next direction of the market will largely depend on the speech strategy of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In my personal view, there is a high likelihood that Powell will lean towards a hawkish stance in his speech. A hawkish speech usually implies a more optimistic outlook on the economy, which may suggest a tendency to raise interest rates in the future or at least a determination to maintain the current interest rate level.

In terms of the long-short game, the upward short liquidation has reached 98,500, involving an amount of 420 million; while the number of longs below is numerous, with 570 million able to be liquidated at the position of 95,500. Such a large-scale long-short liquidation shows a huge divergence among market participants. If Powell makes hawkish remarks, it could trigger further market volatility. On one hand, shorts may be encouraged to increase their short positions, pushing prices further down; on the other hand, longs may also hold their ground, using the market adjustment to increase their positions. The final direction of the market largely depends on the power dynamics between both sides and the changes in market sentiment under these circumstances.

As for whether to choose to short, it is crucial to closely monitor the market's immediate reaction to Powell's speech. If the market reacts strongly to hawkish statements, showing a clear downward trend, and various technical indicators and market signals support shorting, then shorting may be a viable strategy. However, if the market reacts calmly, or if the longs quickly organize a counterattack, then shorting may face significant risks. Before making a decision, investors also need to consider their risk tolerance, investment objectives, and the overall market environment.