BTC Four-Hour K-Line Analysis — "Calm Waters Run Deep, A Trend Change is Imminent"
The current BTC trend exhibits a typical "dormant volcano" pattern — beneath the seemingly calm sideways movement lies immense energy. The four-hour level has seen a continuous 12 candles with a fluctuation of less than 3%, and trading volume has shrunk to below 60% of the monthly average, indicating that the market is in a deadlock between bulls and bears.
Key Observation Points: Volume-Price Divergence Signal
Price has been sideways in the 61,200−61,200−62,800 range for 83 hours
Trading volume is decreasing in a stepwise manner, with the latest four-hour volume at only 12,000 BTC
Open Interest shows that the perpetual contract funding rate remains between -0.003% and 0.001%
Key Technical Levels
Upper Resistance: $63,200
Lower Support: $60,800
Potential Trend Change Point: A breakout above 63,500 or a drop below 63,500 or a drop below 60,000 will confirm the direction
Market Sentiment Indicators
Fear and Greed Index 28
Contract Long-Short Ratio 0.87
Net outflow from exchanges continues for 3 days
Short-Term Scenario Projection:
Continuation of Volatility: Maintain the 61k−61k−63k range
Upward Breakout: Requires volume to exceed 20,000 BTC/4h
False Breakdown: Quick test of $59,800 followed by a rebound
Operational Strategy:
Spot: Gradually build positions below 61,000, stop-loss below 61,000, gradually build positions, stop-loss at 59,500
Contracts: Follow longs on a breakout above 63,500, follow longs on a drop below 63,500, short below 60,800
Key Time Window: Tonight 20:00-24:00
The market is repeating the trend template from April 2024 — at that time, it broke out after 11 days of sideways movement, rising by 18%. Currently, miner positions have increased to 1.84 million BTC, large on-chain transfers are frequent, and smart money has begun to position itself.
Remember: The longer the sideways movement lasts, the more powerful the breakout will be. What you need to do now is not predict the direction but prepare responses for both scenarios. When most people are still debating bulls and bears, the market often has already started.
As the market continues to change, we must closely monitor market signals and seize new entry opportunities. Like + leave a message, and we'll navigate the bull market together to seize this great opportunity!
LAYER PARTI MEMEFI BTC
