Current Evaluation of Filecoin's Development

Based on the provided data from May 6, 2025 (May 6, 2025 FIL data: computing power dropped to 22.298E, decreasing by 21P on average daily; total circulation exceeds 720 million, increasing by 500,000 daily on average; total staking is 130 million) and information from the entire network, the following is a comprehensive evaluation of Filecoin's current development and future outlook:

I. Current Development Status

Key Data Analysis:

Decline in computing power: The total network power has dropped to 22.298 EiB, decreasing by 21 PiB on average daily, indicating an expectation of network power growth even showing contraction. This may be related to market oversupply, fluctuations in storage demand, or a decrease in miner participation.

Actual Storage Decline: The physical space (actual storage) is 3.62 EiB, showing a decline from previous knowledge, indicating that storage utilization may not have met expectations, or that the high value of data storage has not grown in line with network expansion.

Circulation exceeds staking: The total circulation is 720 million tokens, increasing by 500,000 tokens on average daily, showing that token release continues, but the total staking amount is 130 million tokens, decreasing by 200,000 tokens daily on average, indicating that a significant portion of miners may be reducing staking or exiting the network.

Ecosystem Progress: According to posts on X, Filecoin achieved significant progress in 2024, including FVM (Filecoin Virtual Machine) supporting over 4,700 smart contracts and 3 million transactions, storage utilization rising to 32%, integration with blockchains like Solana and Cardano, and expansion of AI infrastructure (such as Filecoin Web Services). These indicate that Filecoin is expanding from important decentralized storage to a broader range of Web3 and AI application scenarios.

Advantages and Highlights:

Technological Innovation: The introduction of FVM significantly enhances Filecoin's programmability, allowing developers to build smart contracts and decentralized applications (such as permanent storage protocols), and promotes the ecological natural resources.

Cross-chain Collaboration: Cooperation with projects like Solana (complete storage ledger), Cardano (integration through blockfrost_io), expands Filecoin's cases and enhances its influence in the blockchain ecosystem.

AI and Web3 Positioning: Filecoin is actively laying out AI infrastructure, supporting decentralized data management and AI model storage through Layer 2 solutions like Basin and Akave Network, aligning with the current AI boom.

Storage Market Potential: The launch of Filecoin Web Services has triggered a transformation in the cloud storage market, aiming to compete with traditional cloud services like AWS.

Challenges and Issues:

Decline in computing power and storage: The decline in computing power and actual storage may mainly be due to market weakness relative to Filecoin storage demand, or a reduction in computing power due to lower revenues. The high cost and complexity of centralized storage may be factors preventing widespread adoption.

Decline in Staking: The decrease in staking may indicate that some miners lack confidence in long-term returns or are continuously opting to release tokens. This may pose potential risks to network security and stability.

Competitive Pressure: Filecoin faces competition from decentralized storage projects such as Arweave, Sia, and Storj, as well as pressure from centralized services like AWS and Google Cloud. Achieving a balance in cost, performance, and fitness is key.

Economic Model Controversy: Filecoin's token economic model (high staking demand, token release mechanism) has previously sparked community controversy, and the current continuous increase in circulation may further depress token prices, affecting miner incentives.

2. Future Outlook

Active Participants:

Technological Upgrade: The launch of Fast Finality (F3) is expected to significantly improve the transaction speed and efficiency of the Filecoin network, enhancing its competitiveness. Additionally, the expansion of the L2 ecosystem (such as Basin, Storacha Network) will further enhance scalability and support for AI application scenarios.

AI and Data: With the growing demand for AI and big data, Filecoin's positioning in centralized storage and data management has long-term potential. Especially in the context where privacy protection and data sovereignty are valued, Filecoin provides secure and transparent solutions for AI model training and storage.

Ecosystem Expansion: Integration with more blockchains (such as Solana, Cardano) and the expansion of Web3 applications will enhance Filecoin's ecosystem stickiness. The continuous development of FVM may attract more developers, bringing new cases.

Policy and Market Demand: The tightening of global regulations on data storage and privacy protection may drive enterprises towards centralized storage solutions, benefiting Filecoin.

Potential Risks:

Market Acceptance: The actual adoption of decentralized storage is still below expectations, and enterprise customers may prefer mature centralized cloud services. Filecoin needs to further optimize user experience, cost, and performance.

Adjustment of Economic Model: The instability of the token economy (high circulation, low staking) may affect miner participation and network health. Future adjustments may be needed in staking or token release speed to balance supply and demand.

Technical Complexity: While FVM and L2 solutions enhance functionality, they also increase technical complexity, which may limit participation from ordinary users and developers.

Macroeconomic Impact: The overall commitment of the crypto market and regulatory uncertainty may negatively affect Filecoin's token price and project funding.

III. Comprehensive Evaluation

Filecoin is currently at a critical stage of transforming from a major storage network to Web3 and AI infrastructure.

Progress in FVM, cross-chain collaboration, and AI applications demonstrates its technological strength and ecological potential, but the decline in computing power, storage, and staking data poses challenges for market adoption and economic models. In the future, Filecoin needs to continuously adjust its efforts in technological optimization (F3, L2), user experience enhancement, and economic models to improve in the competitive decentralized storage market.

Recommendations:

Short-term: Optimize the incentive mechanism for miners, reduce participation rates, and attract more storage providers and developers.

Among them: By deepening cooperation with AI and Web3 projects, expand high-value data storage cases and enhance network utilization.

Long-term: Continuously invest in technological upgrades (such as F3) and ecosystem expansion, while exploring cooperation with traditional enterprises (such as data backup, compliant storage) for scalable applications centered on storage.

Data Source: The above analysis is based on Medium article data provided by users (May 6, 2025) and related posts on platform X (2023-2025). Please note that posts on X may contain unverifiable information and are for reference only.

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