#交易故事 #BTC交易

Based on current market dynamics, the short-term bearish reasons for Bitcoin (BTC) are as follows:

1. Technical Pressure: The price has been repeatedly blocked at the key resistance zone of $95,500-$97,000, MACD momentum is weakening and shows a top divergence signal, and the EMA moving averages are turning downwards indicating a weakening short-term trend.

2. Increased Policy Risk: With the Federal Reserve's May meeting approaching, any hawkish signals or delays in interest rate cuts may suppress the performance of risk assets; at the same time, the regulatory dynamics of the SEC and the policy uncertainties of the G20 Summit constitute potential black swans.

3. On-chain Selling Pressure: Frequent movements of whale addresses, large sell orders, and a decline in ETF capital inflows suggest that the main forces are reducing their positions, while the continuous outflow of stablecoins from exchanges reflects an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment.

4. Diverging Market Sentiment: Volatility has fallen to a yearly low, the long-short balance is fragile, and historically similar phases are often accompanied by deep corrections; retail investors are weak in chasing highs, and if the cost support for short-term holders (at $93,500) is broken, it may trigger stop-loss selling.

In summary, under the resonance of technical resistance, policy disruptions, and capital outflows, the short-term pullback risk for BTC intensifies.