Let me first highlight a key point here: after tonight's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, we must take a look at the market's new trends regarding future interest rate bets.
Let's talk about the interest rate decisions at these key time points.
In May, the market basically agreed that there would be no interest rate cut, with a probability of 97.8%, it's pretty much settled.
In June, the situation is a bit more divided; the probability of no rate cut is 68.9%, but 30% of people believe there will be a 25 basis point cut. With these probabilities in play, it’s really hard to say whether there will be a cut in June.
In July, it seems like the wind has changed a bit, with the market believing there is a 57.1% chance of restoring rate cuts, and the possibility of a cut surprisingly exceeds half.
In September, the probability of continuing to cut rates is also at 50.9%, which is about even with the probability of not cutting rates, so the market is a bit uncertain at this moment.
Overall, the market now seems to have a rough idea of the interest rate trend, and prices have reflected this pretty well, leaving little room for further bets. Therefore, tonight's market fluctuations will likely depend on what Powell says. As for me, I have already positioned myself in Bitcoin and Ethereum in advance, and now I’m just waiting for the market to cooperate to make some profit!
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