Today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to make a decision on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High likelihood of maintaining: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of maintaining the current rate.

2- Political pressures without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls to cut rates to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, citing inflation risks stemming from the new tariffs.

3- Market watch: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the expected decision. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have decreased, while gold has risen by over 2% supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates starting in July, especially if the effects of the tariffs start to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. But so far, there are no strong indications of sufficient economic weakness to justify an immediate rate cut.