Today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing uncertainty about the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.
Key updates:
1- High likelihood of maintaining rates: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of an interest rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of maintaining rates.
2- Political pressures unaddressed: Despite President Trump's repeated calls for an interest rate cut to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, citing inflation risks arising from the new tariffs.
3- Market vigilance: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the decision expectations. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have dropped, while gold has risen by over 2%, supported by a weak dollar and increased demand for safe havens.
Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates starting in July, especially if the effects of the tariffs start to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. But so far, there are no strong indicators of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate interest rate cut.