#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025) to decide on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing uncertainty about the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High likelihood of stabilization: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of stabilization.

2- Political pressure without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls to lower interest rates to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, pointing to inflation risks arising from the new tariffs.

3- Market anticipation: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the anticipated decision. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have declined, while gold has risen by more than 2%, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates beginning in July, especially if the effects of tariffs begin to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. However, so far, there are no strong indicators of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate rate cut.