Today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing anticipation regarding the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High likelihood of holding: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the chance of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of holding.

2- Political pressure without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls to lower rates to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, citing inflation risks arising from new tariffs.

3- Market anticipation: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the expectations of the decision. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have fallen, while gold has risen by over 2%, supported by a weak dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates beginning in July, especially if the effects of tariffs begin to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. But so far, there are no strong indicators of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate rate cut.