As of May 6, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently holding its meeting, scheduled for May 6–7, 2025. No official outcome or decision has been released yet, as the policy statement and press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are expected on May 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET (11:00 p.m. PKT). Based on recent data and commentary:

Expectations: Markets widely anticipate the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged from the March 2025 meeting. Analysts suggest a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on inflation and growth. A rate cut is considered unlikely in May, with June 18, 2025, seen as a potential next opportunity if economic data supports it.

Economic Context: Recent reports indicate a robust labor market (e.g., April 2025 jobs data) and inflation above the 2% target (PCE at 2.6% excluding food and energy). GDP growth forecasts have been revised down to 1.7% for 2025, reflecting tariff-related concerns, while inflation projections have edged up to 2.8%.

Sentiment: Posts on X and market analyses suggest a 90% probability of no rate change, with some optimism for cuts later in the year (e.g., two to three cuts projected for 2025). However, uncertainty persists due to trade policy impacts.

The full report, including minutes and projections, will be available post-meeting. Check back after May 7 for updates!