#FOMCMeeting

**May 2025 FOMC Meeting: Key Points and Market Expectations**

The **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)** is holding its third meeting of the year today and tomorrow (May 6-7), set against a backdrop of trade tensions, political pressure from the White House, and mixed economic signals. Here are the key points:

### **1. Interest Rate: Will it Remain Stable?**

- **Market Consensus**: There is a **94% probability** that the Fed will keep rates in the current range of **4.25%-4.50%**, where they have been since December 2024.

- **Trump's Pressure**: The president has publicly demanded cuts ("THERE IS NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER RATES!"), but analysts believe the Fed will prioritize price stability.

- **Economic Data**:

- **Strong Employment**: In April, **177,000 jobs were added**, exceeding expectations.

- **Persistent Inflation**: The **Core PCE** stands at **2.6%**, above the 2% target.

### **2. Impact of Trump's Tariffs**

- The **145% tariffs on Chinese products** have created uncertainty, with companies like Apple and GM warning about impacts on their earnings.

- The Fed is monitoring whether these tariffs lead to a **temporary increase in prices** or a lasting inflationary problem.

### **3. What to Expect from Powell's Speech?**

- **Cautious Tone**: Powell is expected to emphasize the Fed's **patience**, avoiding commitment to future cuts until there is more clarity.

- **Possible Scenarios**:

- **Hawkish**: If he emphasizes inflationary risks, it could put downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

- **Dovish**: A more flexible message regarding cuts in 2025 could boost markets.