The main reason for the delay in the altcoin season of the crypto market is the increasingly strengthened dominance of Bitcoin, macroeconomic tightening, oversupply of altcoins, reduced enthusiasm from retail investors, and regulatory uncertainties. The stability of Bitcoin and institutional preference attract capital inflow, while altcoins are limited by insufficient liquidity and reduced risk appetite. Based on previous bull market performances, altcoin seasons often occur after Bitcoin stabilizes. It's essential to understand that the investment market is not a charity; it constantly tests investors' mentality and patience. Those who cannot withstand loneliness and hold onto their investments are often the first to cut losses, leading to regret later!
Bitcoin's continuous dominance in the crypto market raises questions for altcoin enthusiasts: Why is the altcoin season so delayed? Will there still be an altcoin season?
1. Bitcoin's Iron-Fisted Control: Dominance and Institutional Adoption
2024 can be described as Bitcoin's bull market and altcoin's bear market; from the first interest rate cut to the U.S. election and Trump's inauguration, a series of bullish statements and news allowed Bitcoin to break new highs repeatedly, nearing a price of $110,000, making investors holding Bitcoin very satisfied. Although altcoins also saw increases, compared to Bitcoin, they were relatively insignificant. The pullback after reaching a certain peak further proves this; Bitcoin's pullback caused many altcoins to drop back to the levels before the bull market began, with Ethereum even dropping to $1,385. The current Bitcoin to Ethereum exchange rate has fallen to 0.019!
Currently, Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market accounts for about 60% of the total market value, hovering around this level between 2024-2025, a level not seen since the bull market of 2017. This dominance reflects the market's preference for Bitcoin due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.
Institutional Attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 attracted billions of dollars into BTC, making it a 'safe-haven asset' in the crypto market. Large institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin and overlook altcoins.
Halving Effect: The 2024 Bitcoin halving event strengthens its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that might have flowed into higher-risk altcoins.
As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, 'Altcoins usually start to rise only after Bitcoin completes its parabolic rise.' Since BTC continues to hit new highs, investors have no reason to turn to altcoins.
However, investors should not lose confidence; opportunities for a bull market still exist! With rising tariffs, gold prices continually breaking historical highs, reaching $3,300 per ounce! Historically, after gold breaks a new high, Bitcoin often follows suit. With the SEC's gradual approval of some cryptocurrency ETFs in May, it is believed that the crypto market will once again see an explosion!
2. The Main Reason Altcoins Struggle: Oversupply and Too Many Coins.
Currently, there are over 15,000 altcoins in the crypto market, but liquidity is not keeping up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains dispersed, leading to diluted potential returns, which is the main reason why altcoins have trouble gaining momentum!
Capital Dispersal: More tokens are competing for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention. This oversupply creates a 'crowded market,' where only tokens with outstanding usability or viral popularity can stand out—far removed from the ICO craze of 2017 or the NFT frenzy of 2021.
3. Absence of Retail Investors
The altcoin season is usually driven by retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). However, retail participation in 2025 has noticeably decreased compared to previous cycles.
Dismal Social Sentiment: Indicators tracking crypto-related social media activities show a lack of enthusiasm compared to the frenzy during the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu craze.
Cautious Behavior: Retail investors who were affected by the market crash in 2022 are now more inclined towards Bitcoin rather than altcoins. As one trader put it: "When BTC has risen 150% this year, why buy Meme?"
Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to ignite sustained rises.
4. Patience is a Necessary Factor in Investing!
Whether in the crypto market or other investments, there are cycles. The altcoin season in the crypto market usually occurs in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Everyone knows that 2024 is Bitcoin's bull market, and 2025 is considered the next altcoin season, but delays are not without precedent.
2017 vs. 2021: Both altcoin seasons occurred after Bitcoin set historical highs and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
5. Conclusion
The altcoin season has not disappeared; it is merely waiting for the right conditions. Bitcoin's dominance, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory hurdles have temporarily pressed the pause button on altcoin fervor. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment. Investors need to learn to quietly wait for the opportunity; after all, we are the weakest link in the financial market, and if we can seize chips from the hands of big players and institutions, we must act when the time is right. Opportunities are there to be awaited!
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