$BTC The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is happening today, May 6-7, 2025. Here's what you need to know ¹:

- *Interest Rate Decision*: The Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and their impact on the economy.

- *Economic Data*: There's a divide between "hard" and "soft" economic data. Hard data shows the economy is still strong, while soft data indicates deteriorating consumer and business sentiment.

- *Rate Cuts*: Markets expect a July interest rate cut, with a 56% chance of a cut priced in. Some strategists believe rate cuts could come later, potentially in October, depending on the economic data.

- *Inflation Concerns*: The Fed is balancing the risks of higher inflation and slowing growth. Tariffs could lead to higher prices, while a slowing economy might require lower interest rates.

*Possible Outcomes:*

- *No Rate Cut*: The Fed might hold rates steady for an extended period, monitoring the impact of tariffs on the economy.

- *Rate Cuts Ahead*: If the labor market deteriorates quickly, the Fed might cut rates, even if inflation remains above the 2% target.

*Market Expectations:*

- *July Rate Cut*: Markets are pricing in three rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.

- *Uncertainty*: The range of potential outcomes remains wide, and policy surprises could upend market expectations ².