Imagine the market as 10 toilets, with only two types of people:

  1. Short-term players who leave after making a quick profit

  2. Long-term holders who occupy the toilet without doing anything


    At first, everyone has a toilet to use, but over time, the second type of person occupies more and more, and the toilets are slowly 'locked', and new short-term players come in without toilets, only able to offer a higher price to squeeze in.

This is how the bull market in the crypto world comes: the chips are increasingly concentrated in the hands of the 'hold forever' party, sell orders decrease, and when the buy orders chase, it easily soars.

But why does it soar so fast? Because there is a 'BUG'-level pricing mechanism in the crypto world:

The price is determined by the last transaction price, even if only one transaction occurs, it will refresh the price.

Take an extreme example: if all chips of a coin are locked by a dealer, at a current price of 10 yuan, he places an order at 1000 yuan, then buys his own order with 1000 yuan, the price instantly rises from 10 to 1000, the market value increases by 100 times, and the cost is 0!

Of course, reality is not that exaggerated. But the reasoning is the same - as long as the circulating supply is small enough, the cost of pulling up the price is terrifyingly low.

So many altcoins just need a little push after being sideways for a while, and the price starts to soar because there aren't many sell orders above, and the 'air zone' is too large.

At this point, the key is to see who holds the chips, what the cost is, and whether there is belief.

The longer the sideways time, the more turnover, the more concentrated the cost, the stronger the belief, and the lighter the pressure above. Once the coin price starts to rise, it can easily accelerate.

This is the structural foundation of a bull market.

BUT! Don't think it will only rise.

Once the support is broken, the belief collapses, and the stop-loss is triggered, sell orders will surge out like a waterfall, and the price will plummet.

Especially for new coins, once it falls below the issue price, it basically just keeps falling, and the reason is very simple:

  • The holders lose confidence

  • Short-term players stop-loss and cut positions

  • All above are 'locked positions', no one dares to buy

This is the underlying logic of a bear market.

Summary:

  1. A bull market relies on locked chips, and the price will rise only when sell orders are exhausted.
    A bear market is when the support is lost, and stop-loss triggers cause the price to fall.

  2. Retail investors need to learn: recognize support levels, control positions, and set stop-losses.

  3. Price fluctuations are not accidental; they are driven by structure. Once you understand this, you can truly enter the crypto world.


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