The US Dollar Cycles Since 1977 What History Tells Us

This chart shows the 10-year rolling change in the DXY Index, highlighting key turning points in the dollar’s long-term cycle.

We’ve seen this pattern before:

Late 70s to Early 80s: A deep undervaluation in US equities followed by a major dollar rally, peaking around the Plaza Accord in 1985.

Late 90s: Another powerful dollar surge during the Tech Bubble, before crashing into a period of equity undervaluation again by 2008–2010.

2020s: We’re now in the Tech Bubble 2.0 era, with a similar setup unfolding sharp rise, potential top, and a steep reversal beginning.

Every major peak in the DXY coincided with overvalued US assets and global dislocations. Every major low? A time when US equities were deeply undervalued.

History doesn’t repeat but it sure rhymes.

The recent downturn suggests we could be entering another major reset. Watch the cycle. Position wisely.