According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 96.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 63.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 35.6%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 1.1%.

The announcement time for the interest rate decision is: May 7th, early morning Beijing time.

Based on fluctuations in the three days before and after the interest rate decision announcement starting from September 18, 2024:

On September 18, 2024, a 50 basis point rate cut led to +3.61%, +2.4%, +1.92%

On November 7, 2024, a 25 basis point rate cut led to +8.94%, +0.38%, +0.86%

On December 18, 2024, a 25 basis point rate cut led to +0.07%, -5.59%, -2.74%

On January 29, 2025, no rate cut led to -0.73%, +2.37%, +0.95%

On March 19, 2025, no rate cut led to -1.54%, +4.99%, -3.02%

On May 7, 2025……

Please, everyone, control your positions based on the above data and seize the opportunity!

So before May 8, do you think the market will go up or down?