Overview

This report provides a Bitcoin market analysis as of May 5, 2025, 03:36 HKT, covering price dynamics, technical indicators, market sentiment, on-chain data, and investment advice. Data is sourced from multiple authoritative platforms, including Coinbase, YCharts, BitInfoCharts, and X platform posts, aiming to provide investors with comprehensive market insights.

Price and Market Overview

Current Price

  • Price: $95,510.02 (Coinbase)

  • 24-hour Change: Down 0.67%, trading volume approximately $15.45 billion.

  • Total Market Capitalization: $1.9 trillion

  • Circulating Supply: 19,859,971 BTC, accounting for 94.57% of the maximum supply (21 million)

Historical Comparison

  • Historical High: $109,026.02 (January 2025), current price is 12.4% lower than this.

  • Price One Year Ago (May 5, 2024): $64,031.13 (Yahoo Finance), annual growth rate of approximately 49.15%.

  • Recent Trend: Up 1.84% over the past week, indicating a sustained active market.

Indicators

Value

Current Price

$95,510.02

24-hour Low Price

$95,268.14

24-hour High Price

$96,443.47

Historical High Price

$109,026.02

Historical High Price Date

January 2025

Total Market Capitalization

$1.9 trillion

Circulating Supply

19,859,971 BTC

Technical Indicator Analysis

Trend Indicators

  • Simple Moving Average (SMA) (CryptoPurview):

    • 10-day: $96,144.50 (sell signal, price below short-term moving average).

    • 20-day: $95,916.30 (sell signal).

    • 50-day: $94,779.10 (buy signal, price above mid-term moving average).

    • 100-day: $89,620.90 (buy signal).

    • 200-day: $86,607.20 (buy signal, reinforcing long-term bullish outlook).

  • Trend Channel: In the short term, the price is within an ascending channel but close to the upper band, possibly facing pullback pressure (Investtech).

Momentum Indicators

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14): 52.14, neutral, not reaching overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) zones, indicating steady market momentum.

  • MACD: -252.80, sell signal, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum.

  • Bollinger Bands: Price approaching the upper band, suggesting the market may be overheated.

Support and Resistance

  • Support Levels: $93,000 (short-term), $92,500 (mid-term).

  • Resistance Levels: $98,000 (short-term), $106,000 (long-term).

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear and Greed Index

  • Current Value: 64 (Greed), slightly down from yesterday's 65, significantly improved from last month's 28 (Fear) (Alternative.me).

  • Interpretation: Greed sentiment reflects investor optimism but may signal short-term pullback risk.


Social Media Sentiment

  • X Platform Dynamics:

    • @ali_charts (May 4, 2025) pointed out that active addresses reached 925,900, a six-month high, indicating network activity (X Post by @ali_charts).

    • @stacy_muur (April 29, 2025) mentioned that active addresses exceeded 1 million on April 25, reflecting market enthusiasm (X Post by @stacy_muur).

    • @Alphractal (May 3, 2025) warned that despite the price exceeding $95,000, on-chain activity is weak, indicating potential risks (X Post by @Alphractal).

  • Google Trends: Recent search volume for 'Bitcoin' has increased, suggesting rising public interest, which may drive up prices.


Derivatives Market

  • Open Contracts: Rising, indicating high market participation.

  • Funding Rate: Positive, indicating bullish dominance, but short pressure is increasing.


On-chain Data Analysis

Active Addresses

  • Latest Data (May 4, 2025): 925,914, a six-month high (X Post by @ali_charts).

  • 30-day Average: Approximately 484,000 (X Post by @CryptoRank_io).

  • Trend: Growth in active addresses reflects an increase in user participation, supporting a bullish outlook.

Trading Volume

  • Daily Trading Volume (May 3, 2025): 389,717 trades, up 2.76% from yesterday (379,268), down 11.98% from last year (442,742) (YCharts).

  • Total Trading Value: Approximately $13.88 billion (145,405 BTC), indicating high network activity (BitInfoCharts).


Hash Rate

  • Current Value (May 3, 2025): Approximately 1000 EH/s (999.96M TH/s), up 2.66% from yesterday, and up 76.99% from last year (564.98M TH/s) (YCharts).

  • Interpretation: High hash rate indicates strong network security and high miner confidence.

Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

  • Estimated Value: Approximately 0.8, in the 'Launch Surge' phase, indicating high market profits and possibly nearing a peak (CryptoPotato).

Recent Events and Macroeconomic Factors

Institutional Adoption

  • The Bitcoin ETF approved in the US in 2024 attracted substantial capital inflows, with BlackRock and IBIT performing prominently (X Post by @nansen_ai).

  • MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing market confidence.

Political Support

  • Trump's campaign promises to support cryptocurrencies may establish a national Bitcoin reserve, boosting sentiment (X Post by @CryptoRank_io).

Macroeconomics

  • The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and inflation hedging demand enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset (Bankrate).


Price Forecast

Short-term (1-3 months)

  • Bullish Scenario: Break above $98,000, possibly reaching $100,000.

  • Bearish Scenario: Pullback to $92,000, need to monitor RSI and NUPL signals.

Mid-term (End of 2025)

  • Forecast Range: $90,000 to $175,000, depending on institutional inflows and regulatory environment (CoinCodex).

Long-term (2026-2030)

  • Forecast: Based on limited supply and DeFi growth, it may reach $300,000 (Changelly).


Investment Advice

Long-term Investors

  • Buy on dips during fear sentiment (index <30), currently in the greed phase suggests holding, watch for $92,000 support.

  • Monitor on-chain indicators (such as active addresses, NUPL) to gauge long-term trends.


Short-term Traders

  • Use support ($93,000) and resistance ($98,000) levels for swing trading.

  • Set stop-loss below $92,000, monitor derivatives data (such as funding rates).

Risk Management

  • Diversify investments to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset.

  • Consult professionals, considering macroeconomic and regulatory dynamics.

Risks and Uncertainties

  • Short-term Risk: High RSI and NUPL may lead to a 10-20% pullback.

  • Whale Manipulation: Large trades by big holders may trigger volatility.

  • Regulatory Uncertainty: Global regulatory tightening may suppress adoption.

  • Macroeconomics: Interest rate fluctuations or economic downturns may impact risk assets.


Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a bullish market adjustment phase, short-term technical indicators suggest caution, but the long-term trend is driven by the halving effect, institutional adoption, and political support, remaining bullish. Investors should flexibly adjust strategies based on technicals, sentiment, and on-chain data, paying attention to key support levels and macroeconomic changes.

Disclaimer: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; investment should be approached with caution, and it is recommended to conduct personal research and consult professionals.