Don't rush to oppose! Why do I say this? Just look at the historical data, and you'll understand everything!
In the past 30 years, there have been six interest rate cut cycles, but five of them saw a drop of more than 15% within three months after the cut.
Is this a coincidence? No, this is the law of market operation!
In the fourth quarter of 2024, when the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June 2025,
The national gold ETF increased its holdings, pushing gold prices from 2600 to 3000 dollars.
However, after the Federal Reserve announced a pause on interest rate cuts in March this year, institutions slightly reduced their holdings of gold ETFs, resulting in a slight pullback in gold.
This is their effective tactic: layout in advance, and once the good news is fully realized, they immediately sell.
In January 2025, Chinese mothers rushed to buy gold ornaments at prices between 850-870, and in March announced a pause on interest rate cuts, leading to a pullback in gold prices.
Adding brand and processing losses of about 10%
In April 2025, Trump threatened to fire Powell, leading to drastic fluctuations in gold prices. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, the price of gold dropped from 3300 to around 3000 dollars during the Qingming Festival holiday.This also caused many gold holders to face liquidation at that time.
However, due to our country's tough stance on tariffs, the U.S. retreated step by step.
The impact of tariffs on this news gradually diminished.
As countries around the world oppose tariffs, the U.S. tariff war has essentially been declared a failure.
As a result, the market impact also lessened, leading to gold recovering its losses and even hitting a new high.
History tells us that interest rate cuts are a monetary war between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
And the U.S. is the largest holder of gold, and gold is linked to currency.
Therefore, we need to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve expectations, especially the market reaction when the probability of interest rate cuts for the year reaches a threshold.
The total position in gold should be controlled within 5-10%, with strict stop-loss settings.
When everyone is shouting for interest rate cuts and predicting gold to soar, it is often the time of greatest risk!
The truth of the capital market is that the sickle always falls when the party is at its wildest!
Protecting your principal is far more important than chasing profits!