On May 3, 2025, analysts at the financial services company Swan made notable comments about the potential for a strong price increase of Bitcoin in the near future. According to them, this could be the strongest bullish context for Bitcoin since 2020. The analyses and data presented not only clarify the current trend but also highlight the exceptional potential of this cryptocurrency in a globally fluctuating economic context.
In early May, gold, a traditional asset considered a safe haven, recorded a notable price increase, reaching an all-time high of over $3,400 per ounce on April 22. This increase amounted to 30% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a shift in investor perception as traditional assets face significant volatility. However, according to experts at Swan, while gold still has its appeal, the strong growth signals of Bitcoin cannot be overlooked.
Bitcoin and sustainable growth
Although Bitcoin shows signs of stagnation after rising about 1.5% in the past week, analysts at Swan remain optimistic. According to them, every time Bitcoin begins to rise sharply, it marks the start of a long-term bullish cycle. They point out that the most recent event saw Bitcoin soar from $70,000 to $108,000, indicating strong breakout potential in the future.
Another important factor influencing Bitcoin's growth is the increase in global liquidity, especially in M2 money supply, which measures the amount of money supply in the economy. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M2 money supply has increased by 4% over the past 12 months, marking a significant change in global financial conditions.
Money supply M2 and BTCUSD | Source: Swan/X
Experts at Swan state that each major Bitcoin bull cycle occurs when the money supply expands, financial conditions become easier, and trust in fiat currencies declines. These factors will fuel Bitcoin's growth amid the instability of traditional currencies.
Market volatility and bullish forecasts
Another important factor that enhances the bullish outlook for Bitcoin is market volatility. The CBOE volatility index (VIX), a measure of expected volatility in the stock market, has recorded a significant decline from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. According to analysts, the decline of the VIX indicates a high-risk environment, and when the VIX drops below 18, investors tend to seek safe assets, and in this context, Bitcoin will be an attractive choice.
"Bitcoin shines amidst chaos because it brings certainty, clarity, and neutrality when all other systems collapse under the pressure of volatility and instability."
Bitcoin VIX | Source: Swan/X
Timothy Peterson, a renowned economist, has also pointed out that as the VIX continues to remain low, the price of Bitcoin could reach $135,000 within the next three months. This forecast is based on a tracking model with an accuracy of up to 95%, indicating Bitcoin's significant short-term bullish potential.
Another important indicator that analysts at Swan have pointed out is the MVRV ratio, which is the ratio of market value to the actual value of Bitcoin. This index recently rose to 1.74, marking a significant turning point in the market. According to analysts, this is a sign of the beginning of a major bullish cycle, as sellers are exhausted and no longer able to sell at high prices. In fact, when the price of Bitcoin rises to $90,000 - $100,000, weaker investors have exited, leaving a favorable market structure for even stronger price increases.
Bitcoin MVRV | Source: Swan/X
Additionally, interest rates also play a crucial role in determining the development of Bitcoin. Timothy Peterson states that each time interest rates drop by 25 basis points, the price of Bitcoin could increase by about 10%. If the interest rate cuts continue, Bitcoin's price could reach $130,000 in the next one to two months. This indicates a close relationship between monetary policy and Bitcoin's growth dynamics.
The above analyses indicate that Bitcoin is in a strong growth cycle, supported by various factors such as increased global liquidity, soft interest rate policies, and changes in investor perception. Despite temporary price corrections, Bitcoin's long-term growth potential remains substantial. In the context of uncertainty and volatility in traditional financial markets, Bitcoin continues to prove its superior strength as a safe-haven asset and an attractive investment choice for global investors.
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