🪙BTC VIEW UPDATE 🪙
📈 After the hot growth period at the end of April, the market is gradually showing signs of correction. The classic adage "Sell in May and go away" seems to be coming into effect, especially in the context of a crypto market that is sensitive to cash flows and short-term speculative sentiment.
Technical signals are supporting a corrective trend. On the H4 timeframe, the RSI indicator has shown a bearish divergence compared to price – a classic signal indicating that upward momentum is weakening. Moreover, the RSI is currently below both the MA9 and MA45 lines, reflecting a significant increase in selling pressure from short-term investors.
🕯 Additionally, the rising wedge pattern – often a reversal signal – is showing signs of being broken. Demand at the support level of 93,700 USDT (converging with the H1 trendline) is facing a significant challenge. If this area does not hold, the range of 92,700 – 88,400 will become the next target, with a deeper risk at 79,800 USDT if there is a lack of substantial supporting cash flow.
🌎 In terms of cash flow and global policy, macro factors are not really favorable for a continued uptrend. Global liquidity is currently being tightened, especially as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet signaled any clear intention to cut interest rates in Q2/2025. This is weakening speculative capital flows, which are an important driver for risky asset markets like crypto.
Notably, the strong surge of altcoins at the end of April – which usually occurs after capital flows out of BTC – is a typical sign that the market is in the final stages of a short-term uptrend cycle. According to market experience, this is often followed by a broad correction to rebalance supply and demand.
🐳 Moreover, large investment institutions are still maintaining a cautious stance or holding a neutral position. This reflects a sense of caution in the face of uncertainties in the global economy and the clear corrective trend in traditional financial markets.
➡️ At this time, prioritizing short BTC positions across multiple timeframes is advisable. As technical signals and cash flow factors lean towards a decline, trading in the direction of the downward trend will be safer. However, investors should also note that short-term support zones may create technical rebounds. This is a good opportunity to increase short positions, but risk management should be tight and not overly complacent.
😎 The analysis is based on personal views. It is not investment advice. Please protect your wallet.