One, review of yesterday's movement (May 3) — Inducement to go long, top structure reconfirmed
Yesterday SUI fluctuated upwards to around 3.33, but overall closed with a bullish candle without volume, failing to break through the previous high resistance (3.36);
High-level fluctuations create a 'false bullish engulfing' structure, with clear short-term inducement to go long;
Technical indicators show weakening bullish momentum, bears are approaching a critical point again;
Conclusion: Yesterday's movement was a false breakout + high-level inducement to go long, with a high probability of a reversal and a sharp decline today.
Two, multi-period technical analysis (May 4, 2025)
【Daily Analysis】—Clear signals of top divergence, bears are preparing to strike
Current price hovers between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, continuously forming mixed K-line patterns with upper shadows, indicating clear signs of a top;
RSI forms a standard top divergence, price reaches new highs, but the indicator does not follow;
EMA system begins to flatten, showing signs of a death cross, especially with EMA7 bending downwards;
MACD momentum bars shorten, ready to turn red at any time;
Conclusion: Daily trend suggests 'weak upward movement + top construction completed', with increasing downward pressure.
【4-Hour Structure】—M top pattern established, bearish dominance in rhythm
Formed a clear 'M top' structure, neck line at 3.26, currently testing;
BOLL band begins to open downwards, price falls below the middle line;
EMA7, EMA20 death cross suppression, bearish pattern has been established;
MACD green bars are expanding, momentum is downward;
Conclusion: 4-hour bearish structure is complete, breaking the neck line will trigger a second wave of selling.
【1-Hour Structure】—Critical point for bulls and bears, turning point confirmation
Current hourly level is fluctuating downwards, all EMA moving averages are diverging downwards;
RSI remains below 50, rebound lacks volume;
MACD death cross continues to expand, short-term bearish dominance is very strong;
Conclusion: Hourly line shows a typical bearish arrangement, combined with the large cycle M top, a pullback downward has become a high-probability event.
Three, key tactical levels layout (mainly short positions)
Opening position: 3.27
First Zhi Ying: 3.22
Second Zhi Ying: 3.16
Bamboo Shoot Position: 3.32
