📄Do contracts ultimately lead to losses?

According to big data statistics and industry research,

here are the key conclusions regarding the long-term performance of contract traders:

1. Over 90% of contract traders ultimately incur losses

Multiple mainstream exchanges (such as Binance, Bybit, FTX pre-collapse data) have had internal reports or leaked data indicating that less than 10% of users achieve long-term stable profits, with the actual figure being below 5%.

BitMEX had previously stated that most account lifespans do not exceed 90 days.

2. High-frequency traders have a higher probability of losses

According to reports from TokenInsight, CoinGecko, etc., the higher the trading frequency, the worse the profit-loss ratio, as fees, slippage, and emotional trading constantly erode profits.

The liquidation rate for high-frequency traders exceeds 60%.

3. Among profitable accounts, over 70% will incur losses later

On-chain contract data tracking reveals:

Many early profitable accounts, after gaining 20% to 100%, do not take profits but instead increase their positions, ultimately leading to liquidation.

The more profit gained and the more confident one becomes, the looser the risk control, making it easier to "give back profits" or even lose all capital.

4. The average lifespan of a profitable account is 1.5 to 3 months

Even for profitable accounts, most will lose their profit advantage within 3 months.

The reasons include market volatility, excessive confidence, and heavy positions against trends, which render strategies ineffective.

5. The only groups that can achieve long-term profits: Institutions & disciplined retail traders

Institutions rely on quantitative trading and market-making to earn fee spreads.

A very small number of retail traders succeed by:

Low leverage (1 to 3x)

Setting stop-losses not exceeding 1 to 2% of total capital per trade

Strictly following trading plans

Maintaining a stable mindset and not trading frequently

Becoming "contract survivors"

Leverage amplifies human weaknesses

Greed leads to increasing positions, fear leads to cutting losses, and hesitation results in missing profit-taking.

One wrong judgment + high leverage = devastating losses.

Asymmetry of profit and loss

A correct trade earns 50%, but a wrong one loses 50%, leaving you with only 75% of your capital.

After several consecutive mistakes, recovery becomes very difficult, especially after the account shrinks, making it easy to lose composure.

The longer the time, the more mistakes

Even if profit is made in the short term, in the long run:

Market fluctuations, emotional swings, and unexpected events will amplify risks.

Most people do not take profits when they are earning, ultimately giving back gains or even facing liquidation.

Platform mechanisms do not favor you

Slippage, price spikes, and liquidation mechanisms are extremely unfriendly to retail traders.

Many platforms even experience "lag" or "abnormal fluctuations" when you are in profit.