1. Current price and market performance
- Current price: Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,348, with a decrease of 0.75% over the past 24 hours.
- Volatility: The currency experiences volatility of 1.10%, reflecting market sensitivity to economic factors and speculation.
- On May 3, 2025, Bitcoin closed at $96,425 after attempts to break the $97,400 level as a major resistance area.
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2. Key technical analysis
- Resistance and support:
- Strong resistance: At $97,400, a critical point that Bitcoin needs to surpass to confirm the upward trend.
- Immediate support: At $93,000, with dynamic support from the 50-day moving average.
- Additional levels: In case of a drop, Bitcoin may find support at $96,000, then $94,000.
- Technical indicators:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Indicates temporary overbought conditions, which may lead to a short-term correction before resuming the upward trend.
- Overall trend: The bullish trend remains dominant in the short term, with the currency trading above upward sloping trendlines.
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3. Factors influencing the price
- Monetary policies: The decline in U.S. interest rates to 3.75%-4% supports demand for high-yield assets like Bitcoin.
- Political support: Remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding support for cryptocurrencies may boost confidence and raise the price to $150,000 if clear policies are implemented.
- Risks:
- Government regulation: Increased oversight in the U.S. and the EU may limit gains.
- Sharp volatility: A sudden drop to $78,000 is possible if resistance breaks fail or economic crises occur.
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4. Analyst forecasts
- Short-term optimism: Some analysts predict a rise to $100,000 with a break above $97,400, especially with improved market sentiment.
- Long-term forecasts:
- Bernstein: Expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Galaxy Digital: Indicates the potential to reach $185,000 with increased institutional adoption.
- Bearish scenario: If political support declines or economic crises worsen, the price may drop to $80,000 or lower.
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5. Trading tips
- Short-term traders:
- Watch for testing the $97,400 level as a key pivot.
- Avoid aggressive trading amid high volatility.
- Long-term investors:
- Take advantage of dips to buy the currency at support levels ($93,000–$94,000).
- Consider investment funds like IBIT as a safe alternative for exposure to Bitcoin with low fees (0.12%).
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Conclusion
Bitcoin is facing a critical day with market focus on breaking the $97,400 level. While fundamental factors such as political support and high liquidity reinforce the upward trend, regulatory risks and volatility remain major obstacles. Traders are advised to be cautious and monitor federal economic data and monetary policy developments.
