[Long-term Analysis] 💡 Threshold points for $OBOL Airdrop on Binance Alpha (135 points)

📊 Analysis:

🟢 First TGE & airdrop: Apr 18 ($BANK) and Apr 20 ($EPT)

✅ Super simple requirements: just 1 transaction (even $0.1 will get you the airdrop)

...

🟡 TGE on Apr 25 ($AIOT)

🧮 Required: 45 points

(If you caught the opportunity well from Apr 19–24, you just needed to swap $50/day, i.e. 5 points * 6 days)

...

🟠 4th airdrop on Apr 28 ($SIGN)

🎯 Required: 65 points

(+20 points in just 2 days — around 80% couldn't meet this threshold)

📈 To reach it: from Apr 19–27, you needed to swap at least $70/day → 6 points * 9 days

...

🔴 Airdrop on Apr 29 ($HAEDAL)

🎯 Required: 80 points (+15 points in a single day)

📈 To hit that: from Apr 19–28, you had to swap $130/day → 7 points * 10 days

...

🔥 Airdrop on May 7 ($OBOL)

🔮 Estimated Required: 135 points (average +6 points/day from Apr 29 onward)

📈 To qualify: must HOLD $1,000 (30 points) and swap 105 points across 15 days → means $130/day minimum

📝 Summary:

🎯 Binance Alpha wants high liquidity and anti-spam, so 135–150 points is a very realistic range

⚔️ They’ve always played it hard — any scenario can happen

⚠️ If you're hoping for a low requirement (100–120 points):

→ you'll get $10/account, minus $3.4 gas fees on ETH (This already happened with $DOLO)

⇒ ❌ Your net profit is just ~$6, not enough to cover 20 days of swaps

✅ If it really takes 135–150 points

→ each account receives at least $35

→ even after gas fees, you’re still netting $30+