Everything seems to point to #Bitcoin returning to $100,000, but futures traders are cautious.
There is a moderate optimism in the #Bitcoin derivatives data, but not everyone is convinced that new all-time highs are "programmed."
Key points:
#BTC reached $97,900 due to increasing demand from institutional investors, but futures prices show that traders do not trust a sustained rally.
Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions limit bullish sentiment despite the $3.6 billion in net inflows to spot #BTC ETFs.
#BTC options tend to be bullish, suggesting that large players expect a rise, but their caution keeps leverage use low.
#Bitcoin broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, after six days of limited movements. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930, sentiment remains neutral according to #BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has occurred alongside significant net inflows into US spot #Bitcoin ETFs.
Part of the disappointment among traders may be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is beginning to affect macroeconomic data. #Bitcoin traders are concerned because, despite the growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could limit price performance. This concern reduces the likelihood of #BTC reaching $110,000 or more by 2025.
The annualized premium for two-month #Bitcoin futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when #Bitcoin was trading near $95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, trader sentiment has weakened. These data suggest that there is less optimism, or at least less conviction, in higher price gains towards $100,000 and beyond.
Gold's performance outpaced #Bitcoin's modest gains.
Some market participants point to gold's 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, as a source of concern. Although #Bitcoin recently surpassed the $1.8 trillion market cap of silver to become the seventh largest tradeable asset globally, gold's rise to a massive valuation of $21.7 trillion has overshadowed this achievement. Investors fear that #Bitcoin's strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its "digital gold" narrative.
There is also the possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs in the last two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect #Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which is consistent with the modest 5% gain of #Bitcoin during this period.
To determine if professional traders are comfortable with #Bitcoin around $97,500, it is helpful to examine the #BTC options market.
The 25% delta skew metric of #BTC options is currently near its lowest level since February 15, indicating that both whales and market makers are assigning higher probabilities to a greater upside from here. This marks a strong reversal from three weeks ago, when put options were trading at a premium.
The resilience of #Bitcoin derivatives favors more gains in the price of #BTC.
Overall, #Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect more price gains, but bulls are avoiding leverage. Some might argue that this creates ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the test of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly impact #BTC derivatives.
The most important factor influencing #Bitcoin's performance remains the trade relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, #Bitcoin is likely to follow the movements of the S&P 500. Although this environment may prevent #Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the short term, #BTC derivatives are currently slightly tilted in favor of the bulls.
