Gold, which served as the primary safe haven throughout 2025, dropped ~3% this week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin quietly gained around 4%. Swan notes that similar patterns in the past—such as BTC’s run from $70K to $108K—have followed this type of divergence.

More importantly, global liquidity (M2 money supply) is rising for the first time since 2021. Historically, every major Bitcoin bull market has coincided with expanding money supply, softening financial conditions, and declining trust in fiat currency—conditions that are now returning.

Swan also highlighted that volatility recently spiked to levels not seen since March 2020. While the VIX index has stabilized, underlying uncertainty remains. Bitcoin typically thrives in such environments due to its certainty, neutrality, and resistance to systemic risk.