Attention all cryptocurrency partners! Major events are coming in quick succession: on May 7th, Ethereum will undergo the Pectra upgrade, followed closely by the interest rate meeting on May 8th, which will definitely stir market nerves. It is worth noting that Bitcoin ($BTC) previously staged a 'false breakout', briefly touching 97,400 before quickly retreating. The MACD divergence pattern on the 4-hour chart is emerging, which is undoubtedly a strong signal for the end of the short-term rebound trend!

It is expected that the market will first enter a consolidation phase, followed by a gradual decline. The first retracement target is set around 93,000, and if the bears continue to exert pressure, the second target could be seen at the 91,000 level. The outcome of the interest rate meeting will be a key variable: if a bearish signal is released, Bitcoin is very likely to experience a significant drop; however, if an unexpected rate cut occurs, it may provide a temporary boost to the market, but caution is needed, as rapid rate cuts can trigger inflation risks, which I have previously detailed in my posts, and interested friends can review them.

From a long-term trend perspective, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will undergo a deep correction starting with an '8' series. The recent hot topic of ETF upgrades is essentially just a capital game among top institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock, and is more like a 'left hand to right hand' game; I advise everyone not to be blindly swayed by news.

For the current volatile market, it is recommended to adopt a 'high short, low long' strategy: when BTC breaks through 97,700 again, or ETH reaches 1,870, it would be an opportune moment to position short; while when Bitcoin drops to around 95,000 and shows clear signs of stabilizing, it will be an excellent time to enter long positions.

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