Technical Analysis (May 3rd, 2025)
➡️Moving Averages (MA):
50-Day SMA: ~$86,151, rising and below the current price, indicating short-term bullish momentum. Projected to reach $109,759 by June 2, 2025.
200-Day SMA: ~$93,669, sloping upward since January 5, 2025, signaling a strong long-term bullish trend. Currently below the price, acting as dynamic support.
➡️Relative Strength Index (RSI):
14-Day RSI: 70.38 (CoinCodex), indicating overbought conditions.
RSI above 70 on 4-hour and daily charts suggests strong buying pressure but risks a pullback. Weekly RSI remains neutral (~46–67), supporting sustained bullishness without immediate reversal signals. A drop to RSI ~50 could signal a buying opportunity near support.
➡️Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
Status: Bullish crossover with growing histogram bars, reinforcing the uptrend. However, bearish bias exists with decreasing histogram and red bars on some charts.
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Analysis: The bullish MACD aligns with recent gains, but weakening momentum (e.g., negative volume delta) suggests consolidation or a minor correction.
⚠️➡️⚠️ BTC is testing resistance at $97,800–$98,200. A breakout could target $104,550, while a drop below $94,200 risks $90,000.
Volume and On-Chain Metrics:
Spot Volume Delta (7D SMA): Negative (April 27–29: -$30.9M to -$193.4M), indicating aggressive selling and weakening spot demand, potentially signaling profit-taking.
▶️🔆❗️Conclusion: Negative volume delta contrasts with whale accumulation, indicating short-term bearish pressure but long-term bullish confidence. Increased exchange outflows (CryptoQuant) signal stockpiling by long-term holders
