🚨ETH faces a critical decision! How to position under the UK regulatory storm? Short-term trading opportunities exposed
Summary
ETH's current price at 1837 is a key watershed, with dynamic support from the middle Bollinger Band and MA200, but UK regulatory headwinds are suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the 1817-1845 range for short-term trading, with a strict 1.5% stop loss. Beware of policy risks that could trigger a breakdown.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: 49.88% in the middle band area, the upper band at 1857 constitutes strong resistance, the lower band at 1817 is a short-term defense line
• MA200 Position: Current price is above 1804 (+1.8%), the medium-term trend is not broken
• Holding Cost: 1794 support is effective, current price deviation of 2.4% indicates stable chips
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: 24h volume has shrunk by 45%, price fluctuations have narrowed to ±0.5%
• Open Interest Changes: Contract open interest decreased by 32% in 24h, main funds are exiting and observing
• Long/Short Game: Perpetual contract long-short ratio 1.70→1.81, smart money is biased toward long but lacks momentum
• Regulatory Impact: The sudden negative news from the UK proposing to ban DeFi lending (2 hours ago) suppresses market sentiment
3. Key Positions:
• Support Level: 1817 (Bollinger lower band + hour chart chip concentration area)
• Resistance Level: 1857 (Bollinger upper band + previous high pressure level)
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle: Daily level adjustment phase in the medium-term uptrend, MACD histogram continues to shrink
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Points:
• Entry: 1835 (current price middle channel)
• Stop Loss: 1809 (1.5% below MA200)
• Target: 1852 (channel upper edge + previous high shadow line)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.3 ((1852-1835)/(1835-1809)=17/26)
2. Risk Warning:
• Implementation of UK regulatory policies may trigger on-chain selling pressure
• Continued decline in main contract open interest weakens breakout momentum
• Operational Advice: Single position ≤3%, if it breaks 1845, take profits in batches
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