Renowned crypto attorney and XRP advocate John Deaton has repeatedly forecasted that $XRP could overtake $ETH in market capitalization by the end of 2025. This prediction is rooted in several factors, including the launch of an XRP-focused ETF, strong community support, and Ethereum's underperformance. Below is a detailed breakdown of Deaton's rationale and the market context:
1. Prediction Overview and Timeline
Deaton asserts that $XRP market cap could surpass Ethereum's by late 2025, driven by a combination of institutional adoption and shifting market dynamics . He initially suggested this possibility in early 2025, citing XRP's price potential of $8 during a bull run, which would elevate its market cap to $461 billion—exceeding Ethereum’s then-projected $401 billion . More recently, he refined his timeline, emphasizing that the XRP ETF's strong debut and Ethereum's bearish trends make a 2025 flip increasingly plausible .
2. Key Factors Supporting the Prediction
a) XRP ETF Launch and Institutional Interest
- The Teucrium 2X Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP) debuted on April 8, 2025, with a first-day trading volume of $5.43 million, outperforming Solana’s equivalent ETF by 4x . This signaled strong institutional interest despite broader market downturns.
- Deaton highlighted the ETF’s success as evidence of XRP’s underestimated appeal, comparing it to Bitcoin’s ETF-driven growth .
b) Community Strength and Legal Advocacy
- Over 75,000 XRP holders united to petition the court during Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC, showcasing unparalleled community cohesion. Deaton views this as a unique indicator of long-term investor confidence .
- He argues that such grassroots support contrasts with Ethereum’s lack of comparable community-driven initiatives .
c) Market Trends and Ethereum’s Struggles
- Ethereum’s decline: ETH has dropped 56% in value year-to-date (2025), reducing its market cap from $401 billion to $175 billion. In contrast, XRP’s market cap dipped only 12%, stabilizing at $104 billion .
- Price resilience: XRP’s ability to rebound from lows (e.g., $1.74 in April 2025) and its potential to reach $3—a 65% increase—could secure its position above Ethereum if ETH stagnates .
3. Price and Market Cap Analysis
- Current metrics (as of May 2025):
- XRP: ~$1.82–$2.13 per token, market cap ~$104–$106 billion.
- Ethereum: ~$1,479 per token, market cap ~$175 billion .
- Path to flipping ETH:
- XRP needs a 158% price increase to reach $8 (as per earlier predictions) or a more conservative 65% rise to $3 if Ethereum’s market cap remains flat .
- Ethereum’s challenges include declining developer activity and regulatory uncertainties, while XRP focuses on payments and compliance—a niche with growing traction .
4. Expert Consensus and Risks
- Supporting voices: Analysts like Dom Kwok (ex-Goldman Sachs) and Peter Brandt echo Deaton’s outlook, citing XRP’s technical resilience and bullish chart patterns .
- Potential risks:
- High retail speculation (62.8% of XRP holders acquired tokens within the last six months) could lead to volatility .
- Ethereum’s entrenched ecosystem (smart contracts, DeFi) remains a competitive edge, though XRP’s focus on cross-border payments differentiates it .
Conclusion
John Deaton’s prediction hinges on XRP’s ETF-driven momentum, community loyalty, and Ethereum’s vulnerabilities. While challenges persist, the narrowing market cap gap and institutional interest suggest a plausible scenario for XRP to ascend to the #2 crypto spot by late 2025. Investors should monitor regulatory developments, ETF inflows, and Ethereum’s recovery efforts for further clues.