The Federal Reserve, this "global central bank," will hold a two-day meeting on May 6-7 to decide whether to adjust interest rates. This is like adjusting a valve on the world's money supply, affecting not just stocks and bonds, but even Bitcoin may ride a rollercoaster!
Key schedule (Beijing time):
▪️ May 7, 22:00 Announcement of interest rate decision (equivalent to issuing a report card to the market).
▪️ 22:30 Powell holds a press conference (equivalent to interpreting the key points of the exam).
Three key points:
1️⃣ How will interest rates change?
Raise rates? Cut rates? Or hold steady? (Currently, the market guesses there is over a 90% chance of maintaining the status quo.)
The U.S. Treasury Secretary has spoken: "The yield curve is inverted; it's time to cut interest rates!"
2️⃣ What will be said?Powell may hint at June's direction (the market currently bets on a 65% chance of a rate cut in June).
Tariff policies have a big impact; corporate layoffs may trigger rate cuts.
3️⃣ What will be affected?Stock market: U.S. stocks just rebounded; negative news may cause them to drop again.
Exchange rate: The strength of the dollar affects global currencies (RMB and yen are also impacted).
Bitcoin: Recently, whales have been reducing holdings; volatility may be huge before and after the meeting.
What should ordinary investors do?
✔️ Don't panic: The Federal Reserve may cut rates four times this year, potentially reducing by 100 basis points by the end of the year.
✔️ Look for signals: Pay close attention to how Powell discusses the impact of tariffs and employment data.
✔️ Control risk: Don't blindly chase highs and sell lows, especially with volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
(Reminder: On May 2, the U.S. will release non-farm payroll data; this employment report may stimulate the market more than the meeting results.)