This is the insight I summarized from my six years of speculation:
An ordinary person.
If there is no one to lead the way, to guide, relying entirely on one’s own understanding.
You basically have to go through three stages to make big money.
And it requires some talent and a bit of luck.
1/First stage.
Ordinary people lack information, have no resources or background, and no one to guide them, so they can only grope around.
So only when the media extensively reports will attention be drawn to the market.
And you just entered the market, and you don’t know what fear is, what cruelty is.
Although your invested position is not large, your ambition is full, and you are killing it everywhere, you have never felt that money is so easy to earn.
After a little taste of sweetness, various myths of getting rich quickly began to appear in the market.
You start to regret why you didn’t go all in, missing the good opportunity.
You start to increase your position and even leverage.
Your speed of making money has increased, and you sigh, if I had known this money was so easy to earn, why work?
So when you want to work hard, you are instead worked hard.
When everyone knows and goes all in, that is the tail of the bull market, it is the easiest time to make money, but also the time when the bubble is the largest and the risks are the highest.
At this time, you have only ambition but no patience, and the outcome is basically a heavy loss.
As long as you are an ordinary person, everyone’s performance is pretty much the same.
2/Second stage.
Most people can't survive the first stage of the bear market.
Having experienced the bull market, you resigned, and internally denied the value of labor.
Worse than losing off-market cash flow is that after you leverage, you are in debt, and you have to pay back the principal and interest every month, time becomes your enemy.
The various narrow fluctuations + false breakthroughs + rapid declines in the bear market gradually make people feel despair.
You found that making money in the market at this time is really too difficult.
Hotspots appear frequently, but they are always ‘short-lived’ until your ambition is worn down.
Once you ‘chase the rise’, you will lose money, and once you stop being greedy and occasionally do ‘swing trading’, you can actually make money.
The market has been punishing those who ‘dare to chase the rise’ and rewarding those who ‘swing trade’.
The long bear market causes everyone to form an ‘inertia thinking’ of swing trading.
The bull market routine doesn’t work anymore.
What hits you the hardest is not losing money + debt. It’s that you suddenly realize you are ‘worthless’.
It turns out that the money I earned was all due to luck, but now in the bear market, I lost it based on my abilities.
This creates a strong contrast with your spirited self in the bull market.
You are in despair, suddenly you feel that the plain days of working before were actually pretty good.
You saw a coin that dropped 90% and then dropped another 90%, and you think it’s all a scam.
At this time, those with money have no courage, and those with courage have no money.
You uninstalled the market software and returned to real life.
Slowly the bear market trend has stabilized, and no one in the group is talking.
At this time, the market quietly advances three and retreats one, continuously rising, until one day suddenly reaches a new high.
You look and see that the coins you have been holding for years finally broke even.
At this time, no one in the group is talking, only occasionally one person asks: Is the bull market here?
As an old player, you have experienced the beating of a bear market and finally made it through, you sighed with relief and habitually sold everything.
After recovering the cost, you stopped paying attention to the market, you don't believe the bull market is coming.
Without incremental capital, how can the bull market come so easily? You think the market will 100% drop back.
Unexpectedly, the market surged after selling, dropping fiercely, you were very happy, but a few days later, it surprisingly rose back, continuously reaching new highs.
The hotspots are also continuing and fermenting, and people outside the circle are starting to enter, occasionally there are news of a few newcomers making big money.
And more and more brothers in the group are asking: Is it really the bull market coming?
You find that many old players who entered the market around the same time as you have either disappeared or stopped talking.
Some have lost everything and been eliminated by the market; some have suffered in the bear market and are afraid of losing.
Most old players are like old gamblers, putting in their daily earnings into the platform, and when betting, their hands tremble even when lighting a cigarette.
After becoming a startled bird, you are afraid of losing, your confidence and spirit are gone, and naturally, your ambition is also gone.
This situation, even if you are still in the market, is basically useless.
Chase the rise? At this time, most old players have lost their courage, and the hotspots also dare not participate.
And you looked down on it and felt unconvinced, thinking this is a bubble, it will collapse sooner or later, and everyone thinks it’s a scam.
But it’s not okay to just watch the market rise; you can only seek stability and buy the familiar old targets from the last round.
Waiting until the market constantly reaches new highs, in the latter half of the bull market, the old players in the group began to become active.
The bull market really came.
Only old players start to participate in the new narrative to make some money.
At this time, the old targets in your hands began to rise.
You know the market is about to end because in the last round you went all in at this point, tied up for three years, even cutting losses to exit.
Although you didn’t make much money, the three years of bear market taught you what risk and cruelty are, and you silently cleared your position.
After floating in the market for several years, you have not gained wealth, you have gained experience.
You are still frustrated this round, but you begin to face yourself.
So in the second cycle, although you won’t lose money, without ambition, only patience, you still can’t make big money.
3/Third stage.
Only those with endurance and good understanding can reach this. Experiencing a bear market + a complete bull-bear cycle is like a five-year-old child experiencing two springs, summers, autumns, and winters.
You begin to realize that the capital market actually has the existence of seasons.
And summer will definitely make everyone hot and unable to resist the temptation to swim nude; but in winter, those who don’t get ashore and don’t put on clothes in time will freeze to death.
You also know that winter can have sunshine, summer can have hail, but over time, extreme weather can never escape the cycle of seasons.
You slowly discovered the certainty of the market: seasons are cyclical, and human nature never changes.
The patterns are remarkably consistent; floating and sinking, it turns out there is nothing new in the capital market.
At this time, those who have stayed in the market are actually a minority.
And those who can honestly face themselves and are good at reviewing their past are basically rare.
They will summarize an investment system that suits themselves.
At least, you have some of your own experience regarding market emotions.
Munger once said:
‘Successful people in the capital market often require a rare contradictory dual attribute, that is, ambition and patience coexist.’
At this time, you balance ambition and patience, and you have gained experience + self-decision-making.
Basically can grasp the rhythm, making big money is a natural outcome.
Those with better luck, who have accumulated virtue from their ancestors, may achieve financial freedom.
(Tian Dao) Li Rui Xiaodan once said:
As long as it is not what I feel and realize, you can't give it to me, even if you give it to me, I can't hold it. Only what I feel and realize can I possibly do it, what I can do is mine.
How much you can realize depends on your current state and experience; how much you can do depends on how much you can realize.
Winter can also have sunshine, summer can also have hail, but over time, extreme weather can never escape the cycle of seasons.
The cryptocurrency market only needs to do three things well.
1. What to buy, how much to buy, how to buy.
2. How long to hold.
3. When to sell, how to sell.
If you can do these three things well, why not make money?
