As of May 1, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, had a position of 945.41 tons, an increase of 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. On May 1, spot gold prices fell again, marking a significant pullback over three consecutive trading days, with a daily low of $3,201.65 per ounce, nearing the $3,200 mark, with a maximum drop of nearly $90, closing at $3,237.79 per ounce, down $50.1 or 1.52%. As gold prices continue to decline, the holdings in the gold ETF have slightly increased.
Fundamental news: Following the previous underwhelming non-farm payrolls, data released on May 1 showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. were significantly higher than expected, while continuing claims reached the highest level since 2001. The latest signals from the labor market briefly raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, supporting gold prices. However, the ISM Manufacturing Index for April in the U.S. fell further but still exceeded expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rose, along with the dollar index climbing for three consecutive days to a nearly three-week high, continuing to pressure gold prices.
From the news on tariff negotiations, reports indicate that Trump previously stated there are 'potential' trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan, and efforts are being made to reach agreements with these three countries. Optimistic news regarding tariffs supports market risk appetite, putting pressure on gold prices. Moving forward, the market is closely watching the latest developments regarding the trade agreements and the U.S. non-farm employment data to be released today.
It is noteworthy that, according to reports, during the May Day holiday market closure in China, spot gold prices saw a significant drop in the Asian market. Goldman trader Adam Gillard stated that, on the eve of the holiday, Chinese traders sold nearly 1 million ounces of gold through the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, nearly completely reversing the positions bought last week.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold prices previously confirmed a break below a three-week rising channel, continuing this downward trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also continues its downward trend. The 4-hour chart shows that after losing the important support level of $3,300, technical indicators have released more negative signals, and the short term may continue to be under pressure, although there is a possibility of buyers entering on dips. On the downside, if gold prices confirm a break below the 21-day moving average of $3,230, a new, larger downward trend may emerge, targeting the $3,150 level, with a larger downward target at $3,080. On the upside, considering that gold prices are currently holding above $3,230, there may be a rebound in the short term, with initial resistance at $3,300, followed by the high of $3,330 on Wednesday, and then around the $3,380 level.
