1. Market News: Breakthrough and Capital Resonance
1. Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance: Yesterday, Bitcoin's price strongly broke through $97,400, reaching a nearly three-week high, with a 24-hour increase of 3.8%. The total liquidation amount across the network was $420 million (with shorts accounting for 61%), indicating a significant squeeze on short positions.
2. ETF Capital Flow Resumes: Although Bitcoin ETF capital flowed out $56.3 million the previous day, there was a net inflow rebound to $170 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT increasing its holdings by over 8,000 BTC in a single day, signaling significant institutional bottom-fishing.
3. Trump's Policy Catalyst: Trump announced details of the 'Beautiful America' plan, which includes the largest tax cut in U.S. history and hints at loosening regulations on the cryptocurrency industry, with market expectations that favorable policies may further attract traditional capital.
2. Analysis of Breakthrough Drivers
1. Technical Breakthrough Triggers Buy Orders:
- Bitcoin's 4-hour Bollinger Bands have continued to narrow before breaking upwards, with MACD forming a golden cross and RSI rising to 65 (not yet overbought), releasing bullish signals from a technical perspective.
- After breaking through the key resistance level of $96,500 (the upper edge of the CME futures gap), it triggered algorithmic trading buy orders, pushing prices upward rapidly.
2. Whales and Institutions Join Forces:
- On-chain data shows that whale addresses have accumulated 21,000 BTC (approximately $2.05 billion) in the past 24 hours, with exchange reserves dropping to a five-year low, and selling pressure continuously alleviating.
- Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate, combined with Standard Chartered's prediction that BTC may hit $120,000 in the second quarter, strengthening market confidence.
3. Improved Macroeconomic Sentiment:
- The negative growth of the U.S. GDP in Q1 (-0.3%) is interpreted as 'bad news priced in', with the market betting on a possible early rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading the dollar index to retreat to 98.5 and a recovery in risk asset valuations.
- After the details of Trump's tariff policy were finalized, corporate inventory adjustments are nearing completion, and supply chain disruptions are easing in the short term.
3. Prediction for the Next 24 Hours
1. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): Daily level breaks the descending wedge, targeting $102,000; the 4-hour chart shows strong bullish momentum, but MACD has shown a bearish divergence signal, requiring caution regarding short-term pullback risks.
Ethereum (ETH): The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing; if it breaks through $1,850, it will open up space to $1,900; if it drops below $1,760, it may trigger a pullback to the $1,725 support.
2. Long/Short Game Focus:
- Bullish Factors: Accelerating institutional capital inflow, whale accumulation, expectations around Trump's policies;
- Bearish Risks: Ethereum's Pectra upgrade may enhance network efficiency, but the rise of competitors like Solana could divert market attention, putting pressure in the short term.
3. Strategy Suggestions:
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Continue holding long positions; if it stabilizes above $97,500 and breaks through $98,000 with volume, increase holdings, targeting $100,000-$102,000, with a stop-loss below $95,000.
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Continue holding long positions, increase holdings after stabilizing above $1,850, targeting $1,900-$2,000, with a stop-loss at $1,750.
Conclusion: Today's market focus is on Bitcoin's assault on the $98,000 resistance level and whether Ethereum can break through $1,850. Investors are advised to dynamically adjust their positions based on technical signals and on-chain data, primarily focusing on pullback strategies in the short term and avoiding chasing high prices. In the medium to long term, we remain optimistic about the continuation of the bull market driven by the halving cycle and institutional capital inflows.
