US GDP shrinks for the first time in three years + Employment collapse! The market bets wildly on the Fed accelerating rate cuts, is Bitcoin about to soar?
The US economy suddenly hits the brakes! The latest data is like a deep-water bomb - April ADP employment increased by only 62,000, far below the expected 108,000, marking the lowest in nearly three years; more shocking is the first negative GDP growth since 2022 at -0.3%, completely shattering the market's optimistic fantasies. Meanwhile, although core PCE has dropped from 3% to 2.6%, inflationary stickiness persists, with 'stagflation' clouds looming over Wall Street!
Black swan strikes, both the crypto and US stock markets experience a 'heartbeat acceleration'
The moment the data was released, Bitcoin plummeted below the $94,000 mark, with Ethereum, SOL, and others following suit, and the traditional market could not escape a disaster: the Nasdaq fell sharply by 2%, and the Dow Jones plummeted by 500 points. But strangely, at the close, a 'counterattack' occurred, with funds hesitatingly hiding a game of chance - the market is betting: the Federal Reserve is about to shift to easing!
Analysts shout: The Fed may 'dove' earlier, Bitcoin welcomes a 'liquidity spring'
21Shares expert David Hernandez bluntly stated: 'The contrasting data makes the May meeting full of suspense, but the recession risk outweighs inflation anxiety, and the probability of rate cuts is skyrocketing!' CoinPanel advisor Dr. Kirill Kretov further pointed out the key logic: a weakening dollar + declining US Treasury yields + surging market liquidity, these three positives will pave the way for Bitcoin to 'take off'.
Interestingly, Trump publicly criticized the Fed for 'over-tightening' again, combined with corporate concerns that tariffs hoarding would distort GDP, the market's expectation for a rate cut in June has soared to 70%! Kretov warned: 'The liquidity in the crypto market is already thin, and once funds return, Bitcoin could soar at any time - but the premise is that the Fed dares to 'turn dove'.'
The May 7 meeting becomes a 'weather vane', the crypto circle holds its breath in anticipation
Currently, all eyes are on the Fed's decision in the first week of May: although the market generally expects the rate to remain unchanged in May, the dovish signals in the statement will determine the short-term direction of the crypto market. If Powell signals 'concern about economic risks', Bitcoin could aim for the $100,000 mark; conversely, if he insists on 'prioritizing anti-inflation', the market may face a deeper adjustment.
