On the second day of the May Day holiday, may your accounts remain safe, and may your mood be light.
Holidays should be a time to relax, but as a cryptocurrency investor, even during holidays, we still face a reality check—are we accelerating in a bull market or is it the prelude to a doomsday celebration?
We don't talk about emotional judgments or shout slogans; we just want to rationally dissect the logic behind this market phase with you and think about one question:
After taking short-term profits, what can you do in the long term?
In the past few days, the market has been heating up. Altcoin memes have exploded in succession, but what truly raises alerts is not how much they have risen, but the extreme divergence in data.
On one hand, U.S. economic data has clearly deteriorated: negative GDP growth in the first quarter, PCE exceeding expectations, and the probability of financial recession soaring to 66%. Institutions generally expect the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates in the coming months, which usually means an increase in market risk appetite, but it may also indicate that systemic pressure on the real economy is accumulating.
On the other hand, on-chain data is exceptionally strong: Bitcoin exchange balances have plummeted, whales continue to withdraw coins to cold wallets; Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, and the total holdings of BlackRock and MicroStrategy exceed 1.1 million BTC, with fewer and fewer chips circulating in the market.
This is a typical disconnection between capital and reality: the macroeconomic environment is hovering on the edge of recession, yet capital is buying heavily.
We cannot say the market is crazy; we can only say the market is always more complex than you expect.
Just now, Bitcoin has broken through $96,000, reaching a high of $97,424.
Standing firm on a breakout is the ignition point for the $100,000 main surge; being suppressed is a signal that risk is beginning to be released.
Combined with the greed-fear index about to enter the 'extreme greed' zone, from a short-term perspective, it's no longer a time for reckless all-in.
So, my short-term strategy remains conservative:
✅ Part of the profits have been realized;
✅ BTC to $100,000, continue to take profits;
✅ If the surge fails, prepare to buy the dip;
✅ All operations prioritize capital safety and profit margin as the primary goals.
But if you are a long-term investor, I want to be clearer:
This is not a reason for you to exit; rather, it is a stage for you to lay out your future.
The actions of BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy have shown that they are not here for just a few thousand points of volatility. They are aiming for asset allocation over three, five, or even ten years.
We can question sentiment, but we cannot deny the trend.
The process of Bitcoin's 'digital gold' transformation globally is no longer just a concept, but a reality.
What you can see is the unrealized gains and high volatility of altcoins; what you don't see is that traditional institutions are quietly building their crypto moats.
If you want short-term profits, you should buy low and sell high;
If you want to hold a long-term belief, please extend the time frame and do asset allocation rather than chasing highs and cutting losses.
Trump Coin is a typical epitome of the current altcoin market.
A holding banquet on May 22 creates a 'ticket effect' that attracts retail investors to buy, while whales accumulate. What you see is the consensus sentiment on social media, but the actual script is: teams transferring coins to exchanges in advance, preparing for 'good news exhausted, harvesting retail investors.'
So my advice is:
If you haven't gotten in, don't chase;
For those already holding, reduce positions on highs;
For planned operations, seize the opportunity to short in mid-May.
Don't take others' feasts as your own faith. In this wave, the rational will prevail.
Lastly, let's talk about something that might be overlooked:
The ETH Prague upgrade is scheduled for May 7. Technically, it's a positive signal, but past 'upgrade days' often come with market reversals, such as the last upgrade leading to a sharp drop.
What you currently see is Bitcoin approaching $100,000, ETH returning to its trajectory, and Trump, SUI, and Pepe being successively hyped...
But have you ever thought, behind all this heat,
Old money is already accumulating, new money is still watching, is it only retail investors charging ahead?
We cannot control the market, but we can control ourselves.
What you need is a strategy to cope with all market conditions, rather than always chasing the peak.
Take profits when the target is reached; don't get attached.
Don't be greedy with short-term opportunities; take the profit and run.
Long term, I am optimistic about BTC and SOL; steadfastly dollar-cost averaging.
Participate selectively in altcoins with logic and chips;
Observe when the sentiment is high, add positions when there is extreme panic.
This is the system I have adhered to since traversing bull and bear markets since 2017.
In conclusion:
The current market feels both like a bull market and a bubble.
It is no longer an era of collective celebration, but a game among experts.
But you don't need to win over everyone; you just need to ensure:
When the next big opportunity arises, may you still be at the table.
When it's time to act, act decisively.
When it's time to exit, do so cleanly and decisively.
When it's time to wait, be as steady as a hunter.
I am Jiang Nan, an investor who has survived between bull and bear markets.
May your account rise during the May Day holiday, your emotions return to zero, and let's catch the next wave of the main surge together.
If you need a doubling plan, short-term strategies, and medium to long-term allocation advice, feel free to follow me; see you in our community.
If you find this article useful, feel free to share it with your crypto friends, let's discard illusions and enter the next cycle with clarity.
