Bitcoin (BTC) price activity has shown a significant change in investor profits over the past three weeks. From April 8 to April 29, the MVRV ratio increased by 21.84% as it rose from 1.74 to 2.12.
This index compares the current market value of Bitcoin to the average cost at which holders acquired their coins. This change indicates higher unrealized profits across the entire network.
As the value of Bitcoin USD steadily increases, many investors shift to profitable positions. This often causes changes in market activity, such as increased selling activity from short-term holders intending to take profits.
MVRV is increasing, but still lower than the peak of the previous bull market. Previous cycle peaks corresponded with high MVRV values of around 3.5 to 4.0. At the current level, the market could still have room to increase before approaching those past extremes.
The activity of long-term holders has returned to normal levels.
In addition to rising profits, data also shows that long-term holders are becoming less active. The 60-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index, which tracks when old coins are moved, has returned to normal levels after rising for most of 2024.
From January to February, older Bitcoin (BTC USD) holdings moved more frequently, indicating that experienced investors were repositioning or withdrawing funds. However, that trend changed in March. By March 27, CDD had dropped to one of its lowest levels in months.
This decline indicates that long-term holders are currently less active on the network. Lower volatility from this group often signals less selling pressure and a more stable supply. With money remaining idle, it can support Bitcoin (BTC USD) prices by reducing the available supply in the market.
Low CDD periods following high activity are sometimes followed by accumulation, often preceding the next market direction move.
Short-term selling pressure continues
Although long-term metrics indicate downward pressure, short-term trading data signals potential slowdown. Buy/Sell Pressure Delta—a tool used to track the strength of buyers versus sellers—has shown elevated values since early March.
This index first declined on March 6 and peaked on March 18. Since then, it has remained within the range where temporary price corrections have occurred. Overall, if the metrics are above 0, this suggests buyers are easing off while sellers are strengthening.
This is not an independent signal, but it is something many traders monitor for signs of a downturn. Despite favorable long-term conditions, the short-term market may still favor sellers based on current data.
Monitoring this metric alongside other indicators can help assess whether the recent bullish momentum of Bitcoin will hold or face resistance in the short term.
The BTC price market outlook indicates momentum, with risks ahead.
The general outlook for the Bitcoin (BTC USD) market is continued growth with potential warning signs in the short term. Recently, the increase in unrealized profits (MVRV ratio) confirms that many investors are in profit territory. This often helps boost market confidence but sometimes some holders take profits near resistance areas.
The behavior of long-term holders has also calmed down at the same time. However, it appears that selling from large, inactive wallets has slowed as CDD returns to normal levels. Increased buying interest could even help support prices if that change can match or exceed current supply levels.
On the other hand, strong short-term sell signals are emerging. If buying activity slows further, Bitcoin prices may decrease. The pattern suggests that the market has not yet truly begun to reach its final peak, but it still faces challenges in the bullish process.
Meanwhile, investors can monitor long-term and short-term indicators to see if this is a sign of a conclusion or just a short pause before further growth.
