I promised to share my thoughts on the market. As I have said many times, no one knows the future, and the events of February and March showed us this perfectly.

I always said that unfortunately, I do not know the future, and I work with the probability of the occurrence of certain scenarios. Therefore, today I will give you 3 scenarios that I see and which I will try to play out.

1️⃣ scenario (I put 35% on it)

We're getting planted now, even stronger decline in the summer (though to be honest, it seems there's nowhere to fall anymore), but as we know, altcoins have no bottom.

2️⃣ scenario. A reversal now and a bullish summer! (I put 25% on it)

This has only happened once in the history of crypto))) Why does it not seem absurd right now (cycles and metrics are not working, bets are mainly being placed for the fall of 2025 or already for 2026)? Do you think it will happen as the crowd wants??? A bullish summer is definitely not what anyone is expecting, and when I say summer, I mean maximum June, mid-July (this will just reflect the relationship with M2).

Therefore, in theory, they might do this, but I evaluate the execution of this scenario as low.

3️⃣ scenario. Growth in the fall (I put 40% on it for now)

Right now, we're all being planted, with a micro bounce, then a decline or a descending sideways trend. And a final growth in the fall until December, February. Essentially, a lot suggests this. By that time, the Fed will lower the rate, the U.S. will increase the limit on national debt, money will appear, and the issue with tariffs will be resolved.

4️⃣ Scenario (didn't expect it?) is more of a scare tactic. Until the previous scenarios either collapse or are confirmed. I wouldn't bet on the 4th.

In 2023, I heard a theory from cool guys with funds about a super cycle. It suggested that after the halving in 2024, there won't be a parabolic growth as before, but growth should be expected closer to the next halving in 2026-2027. This is related to many metrics, from the potential collapse of the financial system, the decrease in global GDP, the increase in global M2, money printing, and the weakness of the dollar.

Result:

To be honest, I really don’t want to see the 4th option, as my nerves won't survive it. The 3rd scenario seems the most likely, and that's what I'm planning to rely on now. Of course, I want to believe that altcoins at least will rise 2-3 times from the current levels.

Max was with you, wishing everyone profit