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Commentators on the Bitcoin market focus on the potential benefits of recession fears for Bitcoin's price strength as macro data puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to act.
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Bitcoin traders are waiting for signals of easing US economic policy as data forces the Federal Reserve to take a tough stance.
Sources say that a recession has become more likely, amid rising unemployment rates and renewed inflation.
Ultimately, Bitcoin and risk assets are expected to benefit from the recession shock.
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The US economy is expected to gain as the economic recession in the United States turns into the "baseline scenario."
New analysis from sources including the trading source includes Qubaisi's message with grim forecasts for the US economy and the Federal Reserve.
"The Federal Reserve's worst nightmare" turns into reality
The US economy is expected to be negatively affected by tariffs and rising inflation that may accompany them.
Qubaisi states that the latest macroeconomic data, which includes the first quarter GDP and the Federal Reserve's "preferred" inflation gauge, puts officials in a difficult position.
The GDP came in significantly below expectations, turning negative against expectations of a 0.3% increase.
Quarterly US GDP growth (screenshot). Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
"In fact, the Federal Reserve has to choose between containing inflation or unemployment," the report summarized, describing the situation as the "worst nightmare" for the Federal Reserve.
The main issue is the extent and timing of any interest rate cuts — something cryptocurrency and risk asset traders are closely watching due to its positive impact on the markets.
Qubaisi added: "Not lowering interest rates will weaken the US GDP further, and unemployment is likely to rise. However, if interest rates are cut immediately, we expect a new resurgence in inflation."
Thus, under a 'losing for everyone' scenario, the Federal Reserve faces the risk of stagflation — rising inflation with rising unemployment — and a full recession.
Qubaisi added, "A recession in the United States has become our baseline scenario," referring to the rising odds of Kalshi's predictive service.
Source: Kalshi
Bitcoin analyst sees a glimmer of hope in the recession
The latest data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool confirms market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, which has remained cautious until 2025 despite President Donald Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates.
Related: "The hot offer" for Bitcoin is approaching $40 billion with a flow of new investors amounting to $95,000
Consensus indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June is the event that is expected to trigger a 0.25% rate cut. However, the odds for the May meeting do not exceed 3%.
Odds of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Meanwhile, participants in the cryptocurrency market are considering the possible path the Federal Reserve might take as it becomes increasingly difficult to deal with the circumstances.
Famous trader Skew commented on FedWatch data saying: "Yesterday, the market expected a 57% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 18. Today, that figure is 63%."
There are pressing pressures on economic data and interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve will remain concerned about price pressures, but it will grow increasingly worried about economic weakness, especially if policy is not corrected in a timely manner.
Odds of the Federal Reserve raising the target interest rate in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June. Source: CME Group
Michael van de Poppe, a cryptocurrency trader, analyst, and entrepreneur, predicted that only a recession could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its stance.
He wrote in part of his reaction on "X" to the first quarter GDP data: "Rumors about a potential recession are increasing, which should bolster the hypothesis of the Federal Reserve easing policy."
"This is likely to lead to market declines, adding liquidity and flourishing risk."
