1. Recent price performance
- The current price of Solana is $150.71, with an increase of 0.59% over the past 24 hours. However, the currency has seen a decline of -1.12% over the past week, while achieving strong monthly gains of **17.94%**.
- It is noted that the price is facing moderate volatility due to factors such as selling pressure from FTX (which plans to liquidate 11.2 million SOL worth $2.06 billion) and declining enthusiasm for meme coins associated with the Solana network.
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2. Factors currently affecting the price
- Launch of W Governance Token:
- The W token is scheduled to launch on the Solana network on "Wormhole Wednesday", an event expected to boost liquidity and attract institutional interest. Positive impact on the price of SOL is anticipated.
- Network and user activity:
- The Solana network is experiencing increased activity, with the number of unique addresses rising by 12% since October 2024, boosting revenues and supporting the forecast for a price increase to $188.52 if the momentum continues.
- Technical disruption issues:
- The Solana network continues to suffer from recurring downtimes (like a 7-hour outage in May 2022), raising concerns about the reliability of the network and affecting investor confidence.
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Future forecasts
- Institutional optimism:
- Companies like VanEck predict that the price of SOL will reach $520 by the end of 2025, supported by growth in its share of the smart contracts market and increased trading on decentralized exchanges.
- Major challenges:
- Pressures from the liquidation of FTX assets and high volatility in the cryptocurrency market, especially with changes in U.S. interest rate policies.
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4. Technical indicators and analysis
- Indicators suggest a short-term buy signal, while moving averages show a neutral signal on a weekly basis. It is advised to monitor support levels at $133.58 and resistance at $170.
- If the price exceeds the $170 level, it may target $188 (an increase of 25%), while breaking support could lead to a drop towards $110.
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5. Investment advice
- Advantages:
- Low transaction costs (less than $0.01) and high speed (50,000 transactions/second).
- Strong institutional support and expansion in projects like NFTs and DeFi.
- Risks:
- Sharp market volatility and technical disruption issues.
- SOL has faced selling pressure from entities like FTX.
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Summary
Solana faces a mix of opportunities and challenges: on one hand, the launch of new projects like Wormhole and institutional growth boosts optimism, while on the other hand, network issues and selling pressures remain significant barriers. Investors are advised to closely monitor FTX movements and network updates, adopting a balanced strategy between short and long term.
