$BTC 1-hour frame “BTC is like a delinquent student just praised, so it's a bit well-behaved” Current price: ~95. RSI(14): ~69 – close to overbought area. MACD: Positive histogram but contracting – signs of weakening upward momentum. Bollinger Bands: Price approaches the upper band, bands starting to narrow – warning of possible upcoming strong volatility. Volume: Gradually decreasing in the last 3 sessions – signs of accumulation or preparing for a breakout
Short wave: Buy: When the price corrects to the area of 92.5 – 93, RSI drops to near 50. Take profit: Area 95 – 96. Cut loss: If the price breaks below 91
2-hour frame (2H) – “BTC is sitting and having coffee, crossing its legs waiting for FED news”. RSI(14): ~72 – overbought area
MACD: Positive histogram but contracting – upward momentum weakening. Bollinger Bands: Price touches the upper band, bands starting to narrow – preparing for volatility. Volume: Gradually decreasing – signs of accumulation, needs a push to break out or correct
Medium-term strategy: Buy: When the price corrects to the area of 92.3 – 93. Take profit: Area 96 – 99. Cut loss: If the price breaks below 91
1-day frame (1D) – “BTC resurrects after the 74k hibernation like an ex when you buy SH”
Current price: ~95. RSI(14): ~74.5 – short-term overbought area. MACD: Positive histogram, MACD line crossed signal long ago, upward trend still holds but is “running out of breath”. Bollinger Bands: Price approaches the upper band (UP: 99.112) strong buying force but needs to be cautious of the overbought area. Volume: No longer increasing significantly warning that the upward momentum may be about to stagnate
Strong resistance: Area 95.9 – 99 (near the upper Bollinger band + psychological take profit area). If decisively breaking above 99 then the next target is 103 – 109
Support: 88 – 89.5 (MA20 line and middle Bollinger band). 80.4 – 82, breaking below is very bad
Notable political – economic – ETF news
Oil rises, Gold rises, Taxes rise, protests rise. But wages don’t rise!!!!
FED & monetary policy: The FED just sent a “more comfortable” signal about monetary policy: may cut interest rates in June, but still cautious as US inflation has not fully cooled off.
On April 30 – May 1 is the FOMC meeting: BTC is “holding its breath” waiting for news – if the FED announces a dovish stance, BTC could surge strongly. Yesterday temporarily halted approval for some ETF projects Sol, XRP, ADA.
ETF & institutional money flow: Bitcoin spot ETF continues to attract capital – in April alone it attracted over 11 billion USD, of which BlackRock accounted for nearly 1/3. ETF helps BTC no longer be a “speculative coin” but becomes “institutionalized asset” – long-term stable value in the future.
Strategy Buying zone (USDT) Take profit zone (USDT) Cut loss (USDT) Notes
Scalp 1-2h 92,500 – 93,500 95,500 – 96,800 <91,500 If MACD decreases, exit early
Swing 1-3 days 92,500 – 93,500 96,000 – 99,000 <91,000 Follow the trend, avoid FOMO buying
Long-term hold Below 90,000 109,000 – 120,000 <80,000 ETF news, FED support sentiment
If you are a swing trader: Wait for BTC to decisively break 99k before FOMO, or look to buy back at 88k – 89k if there’s a correction. Gradually take profit at 103k – 109k, remember to wear a seatbelt when the wave comes.
If you are a long-term holder: Just sit and drink tea. Long-term is still fine, as long as you don't FOMO at the peak like back at 69k and then shout “come back home”.
If you are a guy (addicted student) ETH: Hearing news of ETF approval, don’t get too excited and spend gas fees at the bar. This time, BTC is truly leading the trend. As for you – stay alert, get a haircut, go to the gym, and wait for altseason after BTC. Remember?
