#特朗普就职百日 Trump's governing style and policy inclinations typically impact the cryptocurrency market across multiple dimensions including regulation, macroeconomics, and market sentiment. If he assumes office again, his '100-day new policy' may have the following potential impacts on the crypto economy:
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### **1. Regulatory Environment: Loosening vs. Strengthening**
- **Traditional Republican Stance**: Republicans tend to favor less government intervention in markets; if Trump continues this stance, it may promote **looser regulation** for cryptocurrencies. For example:
- **SEC's Position Softening**: The current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's tough regulation of cryptocurrencies (such as classifying most tokens as securities) may be adjusted; newly appointed officials may take a more flexible stance.
- **Legislative Push**: A Republican-controlled Congress may accelerate the passage of bills like the (Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act) (FIT21), clarifying token classification and exchange regulatory frameworks.
- **Legalization of Stablecoins**: Trump's team has previously expressed support for stablecoin legislation, which may promote compliance for U.S. dollar stablecoins.
- **Potential Risks**: If Trump continues the 'America First' policy, he may require cryptocurrency companies to enhance compliance (such as KYC/AML), or even restrict foreign platforms from entering the U.S. market.
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### **2. Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy**
- **Fiscal Stimulus and Inflation**: Trump may introduce fiscal expansion policies such as tax cuts and infrastructure investments; if combined with Federal Reserve rate cuts, it may exacerbate inflation expectations. Demand for **inflation-hedging assets** such as Bitcoin may rise.
- **Dollar Trends**: Trump's trade protection policies (such as increasing tariffs) may lead to dollar fluctuations; if the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies as alternative stores of value may benefit.
- **Interest Rate Policy**: If the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts due to an overheating economy, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may face short-term pressure, but the long-term outlook still depends on the liquidity environment.
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### **3. Geopolitics and Market Sentiment**
- **Escalation of 'De-globalization'**: Trump's isolationist foreign policy (such as the tech war with China and sanctions against Iran/Russia) may encourage more countries or individuals to use cryptocurrencies to bypass traditional financial systems.
- **Hedging Demand**: Geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainty may drive capital into Bitcoin and other 'digital gold'.
- **Market Volatility**: Trump's statements and policy directions often trigger severe market reactions; the crypto market may experience short-term price fluctuations due to sudden tweets or news.
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### **4. Energy Policy and Mining Impact**
- **Support for Traditional Energy**: If Trump revives the fossil fuel industry (such as easing shale oil extraction), it may lower the energy costs for Bitcoin mining and alleviate environmental controversies.
- **Clean Energy Restrictions**: If subsidies for renewable energy are reduced, the costs for mining companies relying on green electricity (such as North American mines) may rise.
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### **5. Competition in Technology and Innovation**
- **Tech Giants' Game**: The Trump administration's position on large tech companies (such as Meta, Google) may indirectly affect their blockchain strategies. If antitrust enforcement relaxes, traditional giants may accelerate entry into the Web3 space.
- **Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)**: Trump has publicly opposed CBDCs; if he halts relevant Federal Reserve plans, it may create more space for decentralized cryptocurrencies.
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### **6. Short-term Market Reactions (100-day Window)**
- **Expectation Speculation**: At the beginning of his term, the market may bet on regulatory loosening in advance, driving up mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) and meme coins.
- **Speculative Risk**: If policy outcomes fall short of expectations, profit-taking may occur.
- **Institutional Entry**: A clear regulatory framework may attract more traditional financial institutions (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) to expand cryptocurrency services.
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### **Summary: Potential Scenarios**
- **Optimistic Scenario**: Eased regulation + fiscal stimulus + a weaker dollar → Cryptocurrencies become a 'flood relief area' for capital, with market capitalization rising.
- **Pessimistic Scenario**: Policy reversals + economic recession + liquidity tightening → Cryptocurrency and U.S. stock markets decline in sync, weakening speculative attributes.
- **Long-term Impact**: If Trump promotes the U.S. as a 'crypto-friendly' jurisdiction, it may solidify the dollar's position in the digital currency era, but it needs to balance innovation and risk.