Historically, the highest returns in cyclical markets do not occur during euphoria, but at the peak of disbelief. The same happened in 2018–2019, and it is repeating itself now.
It is common for people like you, a simple dreamer with a legitimate desire to improve your family's financial situation, to feel all the psychological pressure that the crypto market provides in times when the economic situation proves adverse, like the moment we are in now.
It is at this moment that the dream of providing a dignified education for your children and creating unforgettable moments of leisure for your family becomes another disillusionment. Then everyone asks: "Wow, just at my turn?"
During periods of macroeconomic pessimism, the common investor tends to avoid risks. But it is precisely at this moment that strong hands accumulate silently, when prices are still far from historical highs, and mass interest is minimal. What seems like a phase of "boredom" for many is actually a period of building solid foundations for the next bull cycle.
Obviously, the greater chance of success will be for those who truly dive into the opportunities of the market, with technical knowledge to conduct a more in-depth study of the most promising projects and with more robust narratives, using fundamental analysis with on-chain data research, among other techniques that differentiate a "gambler" from a cautious investor.
Remember, the first investment to be made in the market is the investment in education and knowledge!
Lessons from 2021 to the present: The previous cycle had a classic bubble dynamic. Yes, in the midst of a global pandemic, in a scenario of economic devastation, the crypto market directly benefited from post-COVID monetary stimuli, with investors seeking high-risk assets. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached its historical peak of nearly $69,000, driven by a perfect storm: abundant liquidity, euphoria over NFTs, and the rise of DeFi protocols. It was the peak of the 2020–2021 cycle.
THE ETERNAL RETURN OF CYCLES: The cryptocurrency market is cyclical by nature, but each cycle carries its own characteristics and learnings. The 2020–2022 cycle was marked by an explosion of innovation and speculation. The current cycle is more restrained, yet more institutional, more regulated, and, paradoxically, more promising in the long term.
While many still treated the sector with distrust, traditional financial institutions began to position themselves silently and strategically. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, with participation from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, drastically changed the profile of the average investor. Instead of young speculators, the market now sees a growing presence of funds, banks, and pension funds.
At the same time, new technological narratives have emerged. Protocols focused on the tokenization of real assets (RWAs), artificial intelligence integrated with blockchain, and the growth of Layer 2 solutions have brought real utility to the sector.
Still, the economic backdrop is challenging. The world is experiencing a moment of stagnation, persistent inflation, and high interest rates. Confidence in the financial system is low, and many investors remain defensive.
Global economic pessimism still weighs on investor confidence. But it is precisely in this climate of disbelief that the largest movements begin to form — discreetly, out of the spotlight. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. And in the crypto world, this rhyme tends to reward those who see beyond the fog of fear.
Stay calm, do your own research, do not trust "course sellers and content on YouTube"! Do not give up on that initial dream, as it may take up to two cycles, but if you study and learn from mistakes, at the end of this journey you will be celebrating success!
Good studies!