The current state of the American economy has a significant influence on the crypto market, and some key factors help to understand the expected impact:
1. Fed Interest Rate Policy
The Federal Reserve still maintains high interest rates (currently above 5%), which reduces the appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Expectation: Interest rate cuts may begin in the second half of 2025, which tends to favor assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, as it would increase liquidity and risk appetite.
2. Inflation and Economic Data
American inflation has shown signs of slowing down, but with fluctuations. If it continues to decrease, it pressures the Fed to cut interest rates.
Impact: Lowering interest rates boosts crypto markets; persistent inflation delays this movement.
3. Institutional adoption and ETFs
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has increased institutional exposure.
Impact: This movement tends to sustain BTC at higher levels, making it less volatile during economic crises.
4. Elections in the US
The presidential elections in November 2025 will bring uncertainties. Candidates with pro-crypto or pro-innovation stances may generate optimism in the market.
Possible impact: Volatility in the short term, but with opportunities if there is a favorable discourse towards deregulation or technological innovation.
5. Systemic risk and liquidity
If events such as the bankruptcy of large banks or crises in the traditional sector occur, investors may seek crypto as a hedge.
Impact: Spot and speculative rise in BTC and stablecoins at times of distrust in the banking system.
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Summary:
The current scenario is still one of caution, but with a bullish bias in the medium term, especially if interest rate cuts are confirmed and the dollar begins to weaken. Bitcoin tends to benefit first, followed by altcoins, especially those with well-defined use cases.
