Ethena has just announced that the third quarter airdrop will allocate 3.5% $ENA , with the claim time being 2025/5/1 16:00 UTC.
This is the first time Ethena attempts to reduce the airdrop allocation from 5% to 3.5%. Since a large amount of participating funds are through Pendle to participate in Ethena, this move will inevitably disrupt the current balance. Let’s see what happens next!
Ethena's third quarter airdrop information
Claim time: 2025/5/1 16:00 UTC (2025/5/1 24:00 UTC+8)
Allocation amount: 3.5% of the total ENA
Airdrop lockup: Wallets ranked in the top 2000 by points, 1/3 of the tokens have a vesting period restriction
It is not hard to predict that Ethena will reduce the airdrop allocation; it may just come faster than we expected.
The tokenomics mention that 30% of the total amount is allocated for the ecosystem and community, and S1+S2 have already distributed 10%. If there is no reduction, it will be completely airdropped in three years, which clearly does not align with Ethena's long-term vision of making USDe a foundational asset of cryptocurrency.
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So the question arises, what will happen when the airdrop is reduced to 3.5% starting from the third quarter?
Firstly, there will be two trends among users of Ethena's own products:
Speculative operations significantly reduced (at least in the short term)
Users will mostly prefer stable returns
This is not difficult to understand; the stable balance of participating in Ethena airdrops through derivative products has been disrupted, leading to reduced returns for speculators and even loss of principal, causing them to exit the ecosystem; while those holding USDe to obtain Ethena airdrops have slightly reduced returns, as long as the principal remains intact and the returns are always higher than most current stable return sources in the market, they are still likely to continue participating.
Impact of coin price and derivatives:
Huge selling pressure in the short term
By actively empowering to enhance ENA's attractiveness, it aims to compensate for the negative sentiment caused by the reduction of airdrop shares
After the airdrop is released, participants investing in derivative products are likely to sell off the tokens they have to avoid further emotional losses, creating significant selling pressure; meanwhile, to respond to users beginning to reassess their willingness to participate with a 3.5% airdrop allocation, the official will actively launch new initiatives to increase interest in holding tokens.
Changes in Pendle derivative products:
Current interest rate balance is disrupted, trading volume increases, users reassess yields
Funds flow into pools with high accompanying value
Due to the reduction in airdrop shares, users will reassess the yield capacity of long-term pools, which will show some volatility; speculators may turn to seek pools that can provide more sources of returns, such as the current Bera Concrete series that is about to expire. (However, the efficacy of Bera is declining, and it can be observed whether new collaborative project pools will be launched)
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Summary
In summary, users need to pay attention to whether ENA's future empowerment is worth continuing to invest, and it is recommended to closely monitor the development and potential returns of Converge and Ethereal in the ecosystem.
If you, like me, mainly participate in Ethena through the stablecoin USDe, you can calculate the expected ideal returns based on the time and amount of capital occupied, and cash out a certain proportion of ENA as a principal-protecting return.
The author plans to retain a certain proportion of ENA, using the sENA model as exposure to the Ethena ecosystem, because Ethena is likely to actively enhance ecological benefits in the short and medium term. For example, Ethereal is about to complete its S0 test network this month.
The past balance has been disrupted, and everyone needs to reassess and calculate, and based on their risk and return preferences, formulate new investment strategies to obtain ideal rewards within the Ethena ecosystem.
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※Ethena code:
eu54u
※Ethereal code:
R7AH81 Link placed at the top
※The above content does not constitute investment advice. Users should operate according to their own risk tolerance, and DYOR when participating in the investment market.
※The attached image is from Ethena