1. Overview of Hot News

1. Bitcoin saw its largest April increase in four years, highlighting its safe-haven attribute.

Bitcoin has increased by about 12% this month, significantly outperforming gold's 6.1%, becoming a safe-haven choice during turbulent market periods (such as U.S. tariffs). Standard Chartered believes that Bitcoin's decentralized nature may give it a superior ability to hedge financial risks compared to gold. Institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs (with a net inflow of $2.9 billion in April). If the monthly closing is within the range of $93,300-$96,500, it will consolidate the current support level and lay the foundation for future upward movements.

2. The impact of Trump's tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's policy game on the market.

The U.S. tariff increase has caused short-term market fluctuations; Bitcoin once dropped to $74,460 but subsequently rebounded above $95,000. The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Q1 GDP and PCE data. If economic data is weak, it may drive expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and Bitcoin may benefit from easing policies in the medium term.

3. Institutions continue to accumulate, while retail investor sentiment is polarized.

BlackRock, Fidelity, and other institutions have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin during the correction period, while retail investors are panic-selling, creating a game of 'institutions entering, retail exiting.' Analysts point out that the current price fluctuations are a typical manifestation of institutional accumulation.

4. DEX and leveraged trading are heating up, XBIT predicts BTC may rise to $200,000.

Decentralized exchanges (DEX) experienced a 47% surge in weekly trading volume under tariff impacts. The XBIT platform has become a safe-haven channel due to its zero liquidity pool design and multi-signature cold wallet solution. XBIT predicts Bitcoin may break $200,000 by 2025, but the risks of high-leverage trading are increasing, with $275 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, showing significant double liquidation of long and short positions.

5. Sector differentiation is intensifying, with NFT and RWA showing clear corrections.

The NFT sector is down 4.43% in 24 hours, with tokens like Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) leading the decline; the RWA sector is down 2.84%, but projects like Plume (PLUME) are rising against the trend. Mainstream sectors such as Layer1 and DeFi generally corrected, with only some tokens in the CeFi sector performing well.

2. Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Technical Analysis: The current price is fluctuating narrowly in the range of $93,700-$95,500, with key support at $93,500-$93,200; if broken, it may drop to $93,000 (MA120 moving average). Resistance is concentrated at $95,500-$96,000, and if broken, may test $97,300.

Market Sentiment: If the monthly close is around $96,000, it will mark the best April performance since 2020. Traders believe Bitcoin is gearing up for the next wave of upward movement, and attention should be paid to the impact of U.S. macro data on short-term volatility.

Ethereum (ETH)

Technical Analysis: ETH remains in a range of $1,700-$1,850, with the 4-hour candlestick showing a stalemate between bulls and bears. Support is at $1,780 (MA30), and resistance is at $1,850, which if broken may challenge $1,920.

Ecosystem Dynamics: The TVL of DeFi protocols on the Ethereum chain is stable, but market trading activity is insufficient, and short-term range consolidation may continue.

3. Risk Warning and Strategy Suggestions

1. Short-term Risk: U.S. GDP and PCE data may trigger severe volatility, and leverage liquidation risks should be heeded.

2. Medium-term Opportunity: If the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts, Bitcoin may rebound to the $95,000-$100,000 range, allowing for low-position accumulation of spot or ETFs.

3. Sector Selection: Focus on RWA projects that are rising against the trend (such as Plume) and DEX platforms with accelerated compliance processes (such as XBIT).

The current market is in a critical phase of bull-bear contention. Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute and institutional accumulation provide support for a long-term bullish outlook; however, short-term vigilance is needed regarding macro data and high leverage risks. Investors can adopt a 'core position + satellite strategy,' allocating 70% to Bitcoin spot ETFs and 30% to high-potential DeFi or RWA projects.