Overall Market Sentiment:

Recently, the market has been a bit 'zen', with everyone not in a hurry to act, mainly waiting for two important data points tonight: the U.S. Q1 GDP initial value and the March core PCE price index.

Although these two data points may show the economy is cooling, investors feel that 'bad news is fully priced in,' and they even expect the Fed to cut rates because of this.



Bitcoin Market Situation:
Price Trends

Short-term Fluctuations: Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 93,500 and 95,750 recently, like a roller coaster. This morning it surged to 95,453 but quickly fell back, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears, with neither side able to dominate.

  • Key Levels:

    • Support Levels: 93,500, 91,600.

    • Resistance Levels: 95,750, if broken, may directly head to 100,000.

  • Technical Signals:

    • RSI Indicator: 67 (close to overbought but not yet at 70), indicating that bulls have not fully exerted their strength.

    • Futures Premium: Bitcoin futures are $700 more expensive than spot prices, showing that institutions are optimistic about the future market, but the premium is slightly lower than yesterday, warranting caution for short-term pullbacks.



Major Macro Events:

  1. Federal Reserve's 'Dovish' Turn

    Last week, Fed bigwig Waller suddenly changed his stance, saying 'If the economy falters, we will cut rates early,' causing an instant market excitement. If tonight's GDP and PCE data are poor, they might be interpreted as a 'rate cut signal,' which is favorable for Bitcoin.

  2. Economic Data Interpretation


    Initial GDP Value: The market expects a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, but this bearish sentiment has already been digested in advance, and the actual announcement may turn 'bearish into bullish.'

    PCE Prices: If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may trigger 'stagflation' concerns; if below expectations, it would strengthen the rate cut logic.


Other Risk Points:

  • Geopolitical Conflicts: India and Pakistan are having minor skirmishes in Kashmir, but nothing major has happened, so there’s no need to panic for now.

  • Tariff Policy: Trump eased up on auto tariffs, but other tariffs remain unchanged, and the market reaction is relatively calm.


Capital Flow:

  • Stablecoin Inflows: Asian funds have been buying USDT/USDC for several consecutive days, with total on-site capital increasing to $244.7 billion, indicating that large funds are quietly positioning.

  • ETF Fundraising: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted $970 million in a single day, setting a new high for the year, with strong institutional entry.

Key Strategy for Tonight:

  1. Breakthrough Direction:

    If the price stabilizes above 95,750, it may start a new round of increases, targeting $100,000.

    If it drops below 93,500, it may temporarily pull back to around 91,600, but the long-term trend still looks bullish.

  2. Data Risks::

    Volatility may increase before and after data release, suggest light position trading to avoid chasing highs and lows.



Summary:

The market is now like a tightly stretched rubber band, ready to explode due to data at any moment.

Short-term focus on tonight's GDP and PCE, and medium-long term on whether the Fed will actually cut rates.

The support for Bitcoin is getting stronger; as long as it doesn't drop below 90,000, any pullback is a buying opportunity.