Can Trump's Hundred Days Speech End Bitcoin Consolidation?

1. Short-term Impact of Policy Signals

- Positive Potential: If clear positive policies such as cryptocurrency reserves are introduced, it could stimulate BTC to break through $100,000 (historical statements have previously prompted rebounds).

- Risk Suppression: Focusing on macro issues such as tariffs may suppress gains and divert funds from cryptocurrencies.

2. Support from Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals

- $4.7 billion BTC withdrawn from exchanges, reduced circulation increases price sensitivity, and long-term holders 'hoarding coins' weakens selling pressure.

3. Key Technical Breakthrough Levels

- Resistance Level: $95,000-$96,000 is a critical threshold for upward movement; the probability of breaking through increases after multiple tests, requiring volume confirmation to establish the trend.

- Pullback Support: If it breaks through $100,000, caution is needed in the $89,500-$91,000 range (200-day moving average); a drop below this range may continue the consolidation.

4. Conclusion: A Single Event Is Hard to Change the Trend

- The speech may trigger short-term volatility, but ending the consolidation requires resonance between policy, capital, and technical aspects. The medium to long-term trend still depends on macroeconomics (such as Federal Reserve policy), regulatory implementation, and supply-demand balance, with uncertainty in short-term breakthroughs.

Operational Advice: Pay attention to the $95,000 breakout signal and the support of the 200-day moving average, and avoid over-committing to a single event.