#美股财报周来袭 $BTC

According to current market analysis (as of April 30, 2025), the key time nodes and potential rising months for Bitcoin are as follows:

I. Short-term Market (May 2025)

  1. Key Window Period

    • April 30 to May 1: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payroll data release. If there are no major negative macro factors, Bitcoin may break through the current resistance level of $95,690, targeting $98,997.

    • Technical indicators show that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a 'rising triangle' pattern, with progressively higher lows, and a breakout probability of 60%.

  2. Institutional Fund Inflows

    • The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with over $3 billion raised last week, setting a new high for 2025 and supporting short-term upward momentum.

II. Mid-term Market (Q2-Q3 2025)

  1. Halving Effect Fermentation

    • In April 2024, Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving. Historical data shows that price peaks typically lag by 6 to 18 months (i.e., Q2-Q3 2025). Standard Chartered Bank predicts a possible breakthrough of $120,000 by the end of Q2.

  2. Policy Catalysis

    • If the Trump administration implements policies such as 'national Bitcoin reserves', it may act as a catalyst for a breakthrough in Q2. Institutions predict a target range of $120,000 to $150,000 in an optimistic scenario for Q2.

III. Long-term Market (Q4 2025)

  1. Periodic Peak

    • A periodic high may occur 18 months after the halving (October-December 2025), with a neutral forecast target of $180,000 to $250,000.

  2. Institutional Process

    • If long-term funds such as pensions and sovereign funds continue to enter, Bitcoin may serve as a 'digital gold' alternative asset, pushing prices to challenge $200,000 by the end of the year.

Risk Warning

  • Short-term Volatility: If May fails to hold above $95,690, it may pull back to the support level of $88,500.

  • Macro Risks: A shift in Federal Reserve policy or geopolitical conflicts may suppress price increases.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is expected to break out in May 2025, with Q2-Q3 (June-September) driven by the halving effect and institutional funds, possibly entering a main upward wave, while Q4 (October-December) may reach periodic peaks. Close attention should be paid to macro data and technical breakthroughs in early May!